Understanding the Relative Reliability of Vintage Cars

Rob Siegel

I am not a professional mechanic. I don’t fix other people’s cars for money. I do, however, repair my own vehicles. And having owned over a hundred cars, including 70 BMWs, 40 of which were the boxy little 1970’s BMW 2002 sedan, I think I have a pretty good hobbyist’s bead on repair and reliability-related issues. Occasionally I make errors of myopia—drawing incorrect conclusions from too small a sample—but generally, when I bounce things off friends of mine who are professional wrenches, I’m not too far off the mark.

With that oddly defensive-sounding preamble, let me say what’s on my mind.

If you’re thinking of buying and daily-driving a vintage car, or taking an extended road trip in one, you need to either have a decent level of do-it-yourself mechanical skill, or expect to be writing checks to a specialty repair shop. And even with that, at some point the car is likely to break at an inconvenient time and location. If you’re not willing to deal with those realities, you perhaps shouldn’t own and drive a vintage car further than to occasional cars and coffees. And it doesn’t matter if the car was “restored” (whatever the hell that means), whether that’s by you, a big-name restoration shop, or a seller on Bring a Trailer with a good photographic studio that makes the car look like it’s a finished product. While there is a lot of truth to the view that well-cared-for vintage cars, even rolling Lucas jokes like my two Lotuses, behave very differently when treated as pampered sunny Sunday drivers than they did as rain-soaked dailies, you’re kidding yourself if you think it’s the same thing as daily-driving a ten-year-old 150,000-mile Camry. Got it?

vintage BMW silver roadside repair
Before buying and driving a vintage car, accept that this is likely to happen to you.Rob Siegel

I first began to feel the need to drop this truth bomb during the post-pandemic run-up in vintage car values. A good friend who is a professional wrench and I fielded a flurry of questions from folks who’d clicked and bought high-dollar “restored” (there are those quotes again) BMW 2002s and were disappointed when what was delivered was not the like-new fully-turn-key car of their dreams. I’m not a body-and-paint person, so I can’t comment on nuances of body restoration, but I can comment on why, mechanically, a repaired/refurbished/resurrected/restored vintage car is highly unlikely to be “like new.”

Don’t get me wrong—I adore the simplicity and the design aesthetic of pre-big-bumper pre-catalytic converter cars (which is what I usually mean when I say “vintage car”), where you can open the engine compartment and know what every component does simply by looking at it. That simplicity does mean that you’re likely to be able to diagnose a problem—and hopefully fix it—on the side of the road, but it doesn’t mean that that car back in its day was more reliable than late-model car is now, and it certainly doesn’t mean that a vintage car, even a well-maintained one, is less likely than a late-model car to wind up in the breakdown lane.

I’ve given a lot of thought over the years to why this is true, and I’ve come up with five layers of reasons. Not surprisingly, the first has to do with technological improvements in modern cars that you’d really have a hard time seriously arguing don’t offer a step-improvement in reliability over their vintage counterparts. I have written multiple articles about what I call “The Big Seven” things likely to strand a vintage car (fuel delivery, ignition, cooling, charging, belts, clutch hydraulics, and ball joints, the last of which is on the list not so much because they’re failure-prone but because if they break, you lose control of the car, so you can’t afford to be wrong about them). The first three of these are dramatically improved on newer cars. There is zero question that modern electronic ignition systems are far more reliable than points-and-condenser systems, that the electronic fuel injection that’s been in nearly every car since the early 1980s is vastly superior at letting a dead-cold car start instantly at the crack of a key, and that cooling systems in newer cars are actually designed for the temperature extremes that are experienced in hot American summer traffic as opposed to those in vintage cars designed for cool breezes in Bavarian forests, overcast British days, and balmy motoring around Lake Como. (I vividly recall attending the Pittsburgh Vintage Grand Prix in the heat of July a few years ago, and as I approached the venue, seeing increasing numbers of Jaguars and Lamborghinis in the breakdown lane with their hoods up.)

To look at two more of The Big Seven, with charging systems, the reliability advantage of newer cars is less of a slam-dunk. On the one hand, modern alternators with the voltage regulator integrated inside are generally more reliable than their older counterparts with external regulators simply because there’s no longer the failure mode of breakage in the wires and connectors that tie them together, but on the other hand, if the alternator dies, a vintage car can probably run for half a day on a fully-charged battery, whereas a modern electronic-laden car may drain the battery in less than an hour. Similarly, belts are a toss-up. Vintage cars often have their belts slacken due to degradation of rubber bushings in the adjustment track. Modern cars have serpentine belts with automatic tensioners that keep the belt tight, but if the tensioner fails, all hell breaks loose.

vintage BMW red front hood open
If you don’t think a significant amount of vintage car road-tripping is like this, don’t do it. At least this was the safe-in-the-parking-lot variety.Rob Siegel

Of course, advancements come at a cost. When a vintage car has no spark, the odds are strong that the points have closed up or a wire has broken off the connector to the coil, both of which are easy fixes. When it has no fuel, it’s almost always a dead fuel pump or a clogged fuel filter. You may not have spares with you, but once procured, you’re soon on your way. In contrast, these things are non-trivial to diagnose on complex modern cars. And some of you may have gagged when I said that cooling systems in modern cars are far better than those in vintage cars. To be balanced about it, yes they’re designed to perform in actual real-world high-temperature environments, but they also have many plastic components, and when one of them breaks, the car can suffer a catastrophic coolant loss which can easily result in engine damage.

The second layer of vintage car problems has to do with issues of parts quality. Most of our beloved vintage cars exist in small quantities, certainly not the millions or even tens of thousands like those models still under warranty or those still used as daily drivers. Once cars pass a certain age, the manufacturer bears no real responsibility for parts quality (or even availability) on older models. Even if you buy a “genuine” part in a manufacturer-logo’d box at a dealership, there’s no guarantee whatsoever that that part is the same one that went on the car when it was new. It may or may not be made by the same subcontractor, and may or may not (but likely not) be subject to the same quality control standards that it was when the manufacturer and/or dealership would have to eat the repair cost if it broke under warranty.

The third layer is that, even if you’re doing a systematic restoration or paying someone else to do so, you’re never going to replace everything. You usually can’t, because of either parts availability, cost, or both. And it’s usually not necessary. For example, on vintage BMWs, front subframes almost never break (well, the left engine mount plate breaks, but that’s weldable). Front MacPherson strut housings last the life of the car unless they’re bent in a collision. Instead, you replace what’s broken, and prophylactically address what’s likely to break. Of course, as cars from the 1960s are now in their sixth decade of service, things that never used to break are now breaking. So when you turn the key and nothing happens, don’t be surprised when it’s not the battery, or the starter motor, or the solenoid, or a broken wire, but turns out to be the ignition switch in the steering column. Or when there’s play in one of the wheels, you find that it’s not the wheel bearing but the stub axle about which the forums say “those pretty much never wear out.”

The next layer took me a while to see, but it goes like this: The issues of quality control and quality assurance apply not only to individual parts, but also to the entire car viewed as a manufactured system. Restoration shops don’t refurbish cars in sufficient numbers to be able to do anything comparable to the systematic testing, evaluation, data-gathering, and statistical analysis that manufacturers do. They may have opinions regarding which alternators and water pumps seem to be less failure-prone, but they’re not testing fleets of vehicles in Death Valley. No matter how thorough a restorer is, or how good your trustworthy mechanic is, the result is never going to be the same thing as a manufacturer building a commercial quantity of cars that they and a network of dealerships are on the hook for repairing under warranty. And you as one backyard DIY mechanic, reading opinions on enthusiast forums, are doing the best you can, but the idea that you’re an automotive W. Edwards Deming running a six-sigma total quality management system is ludicrous.

The last layer is one of expectation. Many of us love vintage cars because of their pre-wind-tunnel lines, their period and nationality-evoking interiors, and the nostalgia they trigger because we wanted them in high school or when we were young adults, couldn’t afford one then, but can now. But even questions of reliability aside, it is highly unlikely that a vintage car is ever going to approach the tightness, quiet, and comfort of the modern car that is probably your daily driver. Personally, I prefer the honesty of a vintage car with patina—it doesn’t surprise you when you drive it, and the car actually feels like the age that it is. Door seals are a big topic in the vintage BMW world. I get that, if you have a pretty shiny car with a redone interior, you want to stop that whoosh and whistle at highway speeds, but even if you do, the car is never going to have the hush of your daily.

vintage BMW red side
Yes, there’s wind noise through the door seals. You can see why I don’t care.Rob Siegel

I’m certainly not telling you not to buy the vintage car you’ve always wanted. I’m just saying that you should love it and respect it for what it is. It’s probably nearly as old as you are. It’s got quirks. It’s got needs. Hell, it’s probably got bunions and gout. Maybe even a little incontinence. It’s likely to need the same amount of professional attention that you do these days. Give it to it.

***

Rob’s latest book, The Best Of The Hack Mechanic™: 35 years of hacks, kluges, and assorted automotive mayhem, is available on Amazon here. His other seven books are available here on Amazon, or you can order personally inscribed copies from Rob’s website, www.robsiegel.com.

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Comments

    Great article. I identify with the sentiment as I own a ’73 Vette that I’d like to drive the entire Route 66 for its 100th anniversary. In its current state, no way it’s making that trip. So I need to decide what to keep original (40,000 original miles) and what needs to be upgraded. I’m thinking that an OD transmission and EFI would be two big steps in the right direction. It has the close ratio 4-speed and 3.70 gears. So the L82 is screaming at 65 MPH. The cooling system needs an upgrade too. Lots of decisions to make and checks to write. But making that trip in my 2014 Miata Club just wouldn’t be the same.

    I’m glad that you got the spirit of the piece. I’m not telling anyone not to take a wonderful trip like the one you’re proposing. I’m just saying that if you think a 50-year-old car is going to behave like a new-ish car and if you can’t deal with it when it breaks, you may be in for a rude awakening.

    Not a vintage car but I had a Mercury Tracer wagon break down 150 miles from home. Water pump seized and took out some teeth on the timing belt. On a Sunday. Found a motel and Monday morning called the local Napa. They delivered parts to motel. I had the car fixed by 10:30 am and had time for a shower before 11 am checkout

    Wow; impressive feat! Those were great little cars, too. I had a ’93 Escort wagon I bought in ’96, with 80k on it or so, stick-shift, that served me well for about another 100k. I never had to have a new clutch put in it, and it was somewhat underpowered, around 100 HP, so smoothly merging on the 70 mph interstate was always a strategic challenge, but not so much for a previous owner of a couple of 60 HP air-cooled VW’s. 😉

    Roadkill, that’s impressive. It’s hard to make the “hole up in a hotel, order the parts, fix it in the parking lot” thing work.

    Rob, Great article, last summer I was out with my 10 year old son in my E-type and you should have seen his face when I moved over to the soft shoulder as the car came to a stop. He looks at me and says “What’s going on??” I said son you are experiencing your 1st automotive break down!

    As I cycled the key from on to off, I asked him if he could hear the fuel pump, He replies NO. Well my boy if the pump isn’t working the engine cant run.

    Like you mentioned in your article with parts supply, the Early E-type in tank fuel pumps are not available , the “update” one (which are much simpler / better) have a little more draw and the 3 amp blow rate fuze. The fuze did its job and blew.

    The nice part is you don’t even have to get out of the drivers seat to change it out. I let my 10 year old replace it and we were back under way to the car show!

    Good teaching moment!

    A colleague at work, “I have a neighbor with a vintage Mustang on blocks in his driveway. I bet I could get that for cheap and restore it!”
    Me, “What’s the longest you think you could lay on a concrete garage floor with rust in your eye and oil in your mouth?”
    Him, “What?”
    Me, “Never mind.”

    Rob,
    None of the writers on Hagerty seem to get as many comments as you do. I joined BMW CCA in 1967 and have read your writings in the Roundel and everywhere else since. You have a real gift for keeping old BMW’s (and Lotus’) on the road and then telling the stories that go with this. I am grateful for all your years of insights and humor. Hope to see you at the Vintage…

    The issue with the longevity of today’s cars are not mechanical, they’re electrical. My 2011 Mustang GT 5.0 has 185,000 miles and the engine feels like it will last forever. What hasn’t lasted are things like the power seat motors with gears made of plastic; window regulators, the navigation system, body control modules, and seat heaters. This car will be done long before the engine gives out.

    I had the inverse with my 2010 Genesis Coupe.
    It was on it’s 3rd engine (#2 was a $500 ebay gamble) and it’s second transmission.

    But at 256k when I got rid of it, every single electrical component worked. The only switch I ever replaced was the cruise control cause I used it constantly. It was even riding on the original 4 wheel bearings.

    I agree that our classics are better reserved for driving under realistic conditions. Fair weather and/or close to home (at least within range of my Hagerty tow coverage). Or as you said, road trips with advanced planning for breakdowns and set backs.

    Parts availability probably has to be the worst issue. My ’86 S class has an aftermarket rad as the OE model is complete unobtanium (the OM603 powered units have their own special rad).

    Or wearing out of things as you said. The previous owner of my car converted it to a 560SEL rear differential (and matching odometer) as low mileage diesel diffs are basically nonexistent. I’m not complaining, though. What I lost in acceleration, gained me 300RPM lower cruising speed on the highway.

    I still have the 1940 Ford pickup truck that I drove in high school in the middle 1980’s. It’s flathead powered, original style driveline, brakes, and steering do exactly what they are supposed to do. I have made some upgrades- new aluminum radiator with electric fan, 12v conversion, radial tires. It doesn’t have power steering, power brakes, or power windows and locks. It is as simple and honest a vehicle as you can get. It always starts and runs even on the coldest winter days, and it just brings me joy to have it. The experience of driving it and even working on any repair gives such a tactile bond that no modern car can reproduce. I don’t daily it now, but I absolutely did 40 years ago.

    Great article Rob. Do you feel age vs miles is more important for components? Are the absurd prices paid for low mileage classics worthwhile for long term ownership?
    Do try to bring your Lotus(‘s) to the Pittsburgh Vintage Grand Prix. It is always a great event with many wonderfully insane car people.

    It depends on the component, even the subcomponents inside the component. The gear faces on a differential that’s been sitting sealed up and filled with fluid? Age is more important than mileage. Old cloth-braided hoses on a car that’s been sitting as compared with those on a car that’s driven a ton of miles in a far shorter amount of time? I’d take the high-mileage hoses any day.

    Regarding all the ultra-low-mileage cars sold on BaT for big bucks, Whether that’s worthwhile depends on why you bought the car. I’d wager most people buying them are paying to own the asset and use it barely if at all, as its value is in its lack of use.

    I’m sorry, I mistyped when I wrote that. I meant that, for the condition of the gear faces in a sealed-up differential, age is LESS important than mileage. Give me the diff out of a 20,000-mile car that’s been sitting rusting away for 50 years over one out of a 150,000-mile car that’s been constantly used.

    Ever the contrarian…I drove BMW 2002s as daily drivers starting in 1969…and still do (no more road salt, though since 1999). My newest daily driver car is a 91 BMW E30.

    Every year there’s a big 2002 gathering in Eureka Springs, Arkansas that brings 02s from all over,, including Maine and California. I’ve been leading a caravan from Ohio for 15 or so years (lost count), a nearly 1600 mile round trip. In a 1973 ’02 that now has 278,000 miles on it. We also do a much shorter caravan (only about 400 miles one way) to the Vintage in Asheville NC.

    Yeah, I keep up with maintenance and repairs and when traveling have my Trip Reserve Spares Kit and tools on board–plus a spare of anything that’s roadside replaceable and that I know is either original or a known failure part.

    So far the 73’s only come home behind a rented U-Haul once: blown head gasket in Wisconsin Dells, returning home from Road America. And many years ago, I drove a then 7 year old Renault 4CV from Austin Texas to Mexico City–and back! At least when one of my old cars breaks down on the roadside, I stand a ghost’s chance in hell of repairing it.

    Rob A Great article! Thank you again for all your tech tips through the BMW CCA . I NEVER should have sold my 1985 M535i to that dentist in NJ 😢!! You have inspired me to look for a 1988 6 Series( manual ) a car I always loved ! Best from PA ! Russ DeJulio

    I purchased my ’66 Austin Healey new in July of ’66. I still own it and have done all the routine maintenance on it since new. Two years ago I got in it to take a drive. Turned the key and nothing happened. I knew the battery had charge so I checked the ground terminal and then cleaned both terminals and reattached them. I made sure the turn off switch was set on and tied again. Nothing. I checked the leads to the starter and solenoid and they were clean and tight. I pushed the button on the solenoid and again nothing. All electrical switches, lights, etc were working fine. I live in Virginia and called Moss Motors, who has a warehouse in Pertersburg nearby to order a solenoid. By regular UPS it arrived the next day, approx $39. Replaced the ORIGINAL Lucas 56 year old solenoid and the engine fired right up. As Willy says “on the road again”.

    As a BMWCCA member for several decades, I’ve read innumerable articles by Rob in “Roundel” over the years. I’ve enjoyed all of his articles. But I have to say this latest article ranks as the best article by Rob I’ve read. It should [think of a school setting!] be “mandatory reading” for anyone who is considering buying a car — especially a foreign car, older than 25 years. Once again in his own candid and informative way that has become his hallmark, Rob does us all a huge service by enlightening all of us on the realities of purchasing an older vehicle without questioning our sanity, our motivation or denegrating the practice as only a classic car officianado who happens to be a great mechanic can do! Kudos to Rob for his decades of service to our community!
    P.S. Love that red BMW 3.0 CSI!

    I used to daily my 74 2002 in the Spring and Fall and still occasionally take it on longish vacations with my wife and two kids. Other than being small and rust prone with no AC, I could year round the car with a few tweaks (keeping the manual choke weber intact).

    I think the missing scenario is time with single vehicle to work out all of the quirks.
    Many folks cycle through cars like day traders looking for the next big thing, ownership is different. After you are on your second waterpump you ask yourself questions… Why is the cooling fan clutchless? You start to think maybe that’s why they eat bearings so fast.. And you look for a solution.
    Why am I slowly going deaf commuting in this thing.. Then you swap in an e21s 5 speed and add some soundeadening in strategic places… Over time the glaring flaws get worked out and you are left with a turn key classic, but you have to be an owner/operator and not a speculator/spectator. And yes, turning your own wrenches and not living off of forum lore is a key ingredient.

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