Opinion: California CARB’s vintage car survey is about data, not doomsday
Confirmation bias is the tendency to believe only information that confirms your worldview and reject as false anything that challenges it. Some people know, just know, that everything the government does is some kind of insidious plot. Usually, our merry little world of classic cars is above it all, but a case in point is a survey that California’s air quality agency, the California Air Resources Board, sent out last August to some owners of cars from 1978 or earlier. The nine-question survey asked things like how often the car is driven and how is it stored. (Its full text is embedded at the bottom of this story.)
Well, it proved to be Christmas in September for the national outrage industry, starting with an “exclusive” on The Daily Caller, a right-leaning online blowhorn founded by former Fox News host Tucker Carlson. The item suggested a link between the survey and proposed zero-emissions zones in California. It didn’t take a hieroglyphics expert to see what was being implied, that overregulated, overtaxed, EV-loving California was now moving the levers of its evil empire to ban old cars. The Caller story was soon echoing in other media outlets and ping-ponging around club forums and cars-and-coffee parking lots, a lot of red-faced folks charging exactly what it was worth for their free opinions.
I’ve still got a few contacts from when I wrote a story on the history of emissions controls, so I made some calls. Steve Albu spent 31 years at CARB and helped write a lot of the landmark regulations that cleaned up the cars we drive. He also owns and maintains a fleet of 20 antique Mopars and has tried—with limited success—to educate his fellow Moparians on what is really going on. Which is that California may eventually move to reduce regulation on older cars, but it needs some data first on how these cars are used and the emissions they generate.
Getting an older car smogged in California is no treat. Among Albu’s fleet is a 34-year-old Dodge pickup. Because of its age, it falls into the gap between 1976, when cars received catalytic converters, and 2000 when OBD II on-board diagnostics systems greatly simplified diagnosing emissions problems. Under current California law, vehicles that fall into this 1976-2000 age group must have a tailpipe sniffer test on a dyno every two years. Pre-’76 cars are exempt from any testing, and post-2000 cars simply have their OBD readers scanned. Because of all the extra time and equipment needed for the sniffer test, the cost is typically higher. My local smog shop charges $90 for the sniff compared to $60 for an OBD reader test.
Beyond that, fixing cars that don’t pass has become “a racket,” according to Albu. For example, his truck failed on oxides of nitrogen (NOx), so he bought and installed a California-compliant replacement catalytic converter. Some emissions went down, but NOx stayed the same. “That catalyst simply has no rhodium in it, the stuff that reduces NOx,” he said. And California is not monitoring the makers of these replacement parts to ensure their quality. So owners are often getting screwed while trying to meet the law. Which is also turning desperate people into reluctant lawbreakers. There are phone numbers to which you can text your car’s VIN along with a Venmo of $300 and get back a passed smog certificate. The state is well aware of the cheating, but stamping it out is an endless game of Whac-A-Mole.
Within CARB, I’m told, is a group of regulators who want to bring rationality to the system by cutting loose from the smog-testing program the shrinking number of cars in the state built before 2000. And the number of 1976–2000 cars being tested is shrinking fast, from 1.6 million in 2018 to 1.2 million in 2020, statistically insignificant in a state with more than 30 million registered vehicles, while newer post-2000 vehicles already represent about 86 percent (and growing) of the cars tested.
But since nothing happens in regulatory agencies without data, the survey was a first step in mapping old car use. “The data we had was 20 years old,” said Michael McCarthy, chief technical officer and vehicle program specialist for CARB. The people who collect information for the agency “are always trying to refine our estimate of what’s out there.” As for McCarthy, he said, “I have no doubt in my mind that there’s nothing in the data that will say that emissions are going up on these vehicles… updating the data will only make the case stronger that it doesn’t make sense to keep regulating these things.”
Meaning that it really was in the interest of everyone receiving the survey to fill it out. Sometimes when the fellow says he’s from the government and he’s here to help you, he really is just here to help you.
2023 California Model Year … by Nick Pope
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This from the same CARB that made me get a proper dual snorkel air cleaner (at great expense) to pass the equipment inspection rather than keep the factory single snorkel that was on the car (a Mopar, coincidentally).
It’s not bad enough that some government agency knows how much money you make (IRS), how many kids you have – and their ages – how old you are (again, IRS, and SSA), what your health conditions are (FAA), where you’ve lived for the last ten (or more) years (DOD, among others), where you work (IRS, the state also, in many cases), how big your house is and what it looks like (the state, county, and Google), how many cars you have (the state), where your kids go to school, etc. NOW, they want to know how often and how many miles each year you drive a particular car. Can’t they just leave us the f### alone?
Know what CARB canvassers could have done to keep Tucker off their back? “Dear Owner: We are looking into ways to do away with extra inspections on your vehicle. Can you help us gather data by answering this?”
But that would have opened the San Andreas Fault.
Know what CARB canvassers could have done to keep the wild-eyed off their back? “Dear Owner: We are looking into ways to do away with extra inspections on your vehicle. Can you help us gather data by answering this?”
But that would have opened the San Andreas Fault.
All right “Moderator,” what is it in my suggestion that canvassers just state what they’re up to that sends my comments to your digital jail? I’m genuinely curious.
The thing about keeping “politics” out of comments is, if you send enough customers to moderation, they might start shopping for insurance.
If an automated moderating system–which most all websites use to keep spam at bay–holding your comment until a human can review and seemingly approve (based on your four comments in a row above) is the thing that breaks your ties from an insurance company, you might need to reassess your priorities.
Also, comments get held up in the filters here ALL THE TIME. Type to fast? moderation. Type kind slow and have multiple spelling errors? moderation. Say “I love this story, more like it please!” Believe it or not… moderation. It happens. Chill.
You will be quoted, on my next quote.
I am going out to the garage and start my 73 240z and let it idle for a couple of hours. Just for laughs.
hmmmm !!! Let me get this straight – California – already a state with high taxes, high cost of living, high crime, high homelessness, and certainly a high number of regulations to do almost anything! Does anybody really believe the info being asked for won’t be used to regulate the use of classic ice vehicles…
So far I have always thought Hagerty was above the fray of politics. This article is making me start to think
otherwise. I have about 7 vehicles insured through Hagerty. If this is the direction they are starting to go in,
I may have to change my direction of who insures my classics! Politics needs to stay out of our hobby!
That’s my point. The topic may lead to a political discussion and that is what it is. What we don’t need is our insurance carrier taking a position and spoiling the sport. BMW CCA learned this the hard way. The magazine editor and one of their columnists veered off the road into this area and they lost members.
Hard to believe there was never a Carlson automobile (there is the Carlsson tuning concern, though). With that out of the way, you just never hear Tucker owners try to avoid politics.
Yeah, and they’re not coming after your gas stoves, either, right?
Perhaps some of the above might slowly, entirely read Aaron’s clear article, note also multiple vintage car-owning Steve Albu’s efforts. But this time, stay focused before reacting.
Thank you Aaron Robinson for writing this article. I too saw Facebook posts citing the Daily Caller article warning people about the survey and how it would be used by The Government prevent us from enjoying our vintage cars.
This didn’t sound credible, particularly when I learned Tucker Carlson, that beacon of B.S., was behind it. So I called The California Air Resources Board and talked to one of their engineers. He said they had data on every other segment of I.C.E. cars, trucks, even lawn mowers–but not collector cars. That means, he said, that they are being counted as daily drivers rather than pampered infrequently used vehicles. He also said that the old car hobby is a multi-billion dollar business in California and no one wants to cripple it.
It’s also worth pointing out that 50 years ago California was choking in smog. Today it’s tremendously improved thanks to widespread emission controls. It’s time to help ourselves and our hobby by putting politics aside and not be taken in by rumor and conspiracy theories.
Here is the problem. California and other Carb States are forcing things and issues that never make the headline news.
Here are four points of active legislation that will directly affect you on the federal level and it is not from Tucker.
#1 The REPAIR Act with Right to Modify maintains your ability to work on your vehicle and/or choose where it is serviced. The bill prevents automakers from blocking access to information or tools needed to work on vehicles with modern technology.
#2 The CARS Act prohibits regulations mandating the use of specific vehicle powertrain technologies. It responds to proposed EPA standards that force a Battery Electric Vehicle-only (BEV-only) future.
#3 The Preserving Choice in Vehicle Purchases Act prevents a ban on internal combustion engines and protects against a BEV-only future as part of California’s regulations. It allows for development of emerging alternative fuel technologies while protecting American consumers from being forced into only one option.
#4 The RPM act that will fight the EPA from preventing production cars from being modified for race use only.
These issues are important to consumers, enthusiasts, and the more than one million Americans who work in the automotive aftermarket, like I do. Join me in making your voice heard, for the future of the automotive industry and to protect my livelihood! Visit SummitRacing.com/legislative-alerts
California already has brought up no drive zones for ICE and other things on their agenda.
No one wants bad air but they do want some common sense and some freedom in what they chose to drive and what they can afford. We have agencies and regulators that are making laws with no respect to the public in cost and practicality.
Not being an alarmist but the time may very well come they will restrict the use of your Packard or eliminate the ability to drive it even as a weekend car.
We have far right activist that are being appointed to government agencies that are changing laws to meet their needs illegally and rules to push their agenda. they are even mad at their president that is in office as he is not pressing things far enough and fast enough to suit them.
You can stick you head in the sand but much is going on and these things need to be tabled in an election year.
I work in the Performance industry and these are not rumors and conspiracy theories. I have had a governor and even a house rep at my desk one from both parties that extended support to my industry.
These activist will take your lunch and eat it in front of you if you do not wake up.
Much of this is real and now is the time to act before it is too late. It may be already.
Thanks for sharing these bills and the way to comment on them. On correction in your post though, they are far left activists being appointed to change laws and regulations regarding this.
Thank you, Packard Owner. May your refreshing reason quell the preceding black helicopter posters.
Slightly off-topic, but not entirely: it would be nice if CARB even stuck by the rules they’ve written. I have always been under the impression that a car in this time period had to pass the smog limits for the year of manufacture. So a 1978 car would have to pass 1978 smog limits, and a 1990 car would have to pass 1990 smog limits. But a friend with an ’84 (owned by his father since new, and now passed on to him) has pointed out that has not been his experience. He has smog slips dating way back, and he showed me how in 1992 his hydrocarbon limit was 220 and CO limit was 1.20 at 2500 rpm, but in at his most recent smog test the limits for hydrocarbons were 97 & 79 (for 15 mph & 25 mph, respectively), and for CO they were 0.59 & 0.45 (15 mph & 25 mph, respectively). Somewhere (my friend thinks in the early 2000s?) these limits were changed to be more restrictive than what they were originally. Perhaps the author has some contacts with whom he can ask to explain or look into this.
Any time politics is thrown into any sort of opinion piece, any information thereafter is already tainted from the inherent bias. (Let’s also be real here, anytime the politics are thrown in now its always against the so called “right wing”). The fact of the matter is this: the state already has the registration data of who owns what vehicle and how many miles are driven any time they have to get their cars inspected, including the 76-2000 cars. Asking people to fill out a questionnaire for data they already have serves no purpose. Answering questions about how the car is stored when not driven also serves no purpose.
If this were truly about reducing the burden or hassle or whatever, they would just come out and say those cars don’t need to be inspected anymore. Period. Its that simple. Yet you have a governor slimeball who has already come out and said they are phasing out all gas-powered vehicles in that state.
So that begs the question: Why would the government need to know how the car is stored when they are already set on getting rid of gas powered cars? There is only one conclusion that can be drawn: they want to know how difficult to be to steal your car from you. And when you tell them you have it sit outside, uncovered, they will make sure to come for yours first. So when you wake up one more, you walk outside with your coffee to discover your pride and joy has been taken from you while you slept to help fight “climate change”.
As Americans, we all have the responsibility to never trust the government and never, ever, give any form of government the benefit of the doubt. After all, it is what the nation was founded on and there is a track record of the government overreaching on absolutely everything every chance they get.
For those that do not think California is not attacking cars and feel the gov is a friend of cars by letting cruising come back. had better investigate the refering of a car.
They can bust you off the road for 98 DB exhaust even if it is stock. A Hyundai owner was banned for a N model Hyundai with track mode and the ref told him to sell the car out of state. The ref should have tested it in default and the dealer can not remove the track mode as they claimed.
Even if you are from out of state you can be hassled even if you are allowed 10 days.
Some of this is due to the street take overs but much of this is due to the CARB laws and they are really busting people down even if they are legal.
” Sometimes when the fellow says he’s from the government and he’s here to help you, he really is here just to help you”.
If you take the shot, you won’t get Covid….