Why It’s So Hard to Value Barn-Find Cars
A lot of ink has been spilled about so-called “barn finds” and unrestored “survivor cars.” So much ink in fact, that I’m almost wary of one more article. Almost. Barn finds, and their sometimes wacky sale prices, are something I deal with and get asked about as an appraiser on a regular basis. So, here we are again.
With the recent RM Sotheby’s “Junkyard” sale (yes, it was honestly called just that, and props to the auction company for not trying to sugar-coat the facts) of the late Rudi Klein’s, well, junkyard, conversations about barn finds have been buzzing. The usual questions about them have come up again. Especially this one: Why do cars in need of full (and in some case more than full) restorations sometimes sell for much more than similar cars that are complete, look good, run, drive, and don’t have a 40-year collection of mouse poop in them? This dynamic certainly played out many times at the Rudi Klein junkyard sale, and even after those expensive auction prices, plenty of these buyers will be keeping their restorers in new full-zoot Silverados and Hawaii vacations for years to come. And believe it or not, that’s OK.
For those of us who have been appraising for a few dozen or more years, the phenomenon of survivor cars and barn finds has been a game changer. Think about this: As the collector car world has been adopting many of the sensibilities and language of the fine arts world, barn finds fly in the face of the “rules” of fine arts. Generally, the ranking of top car values goes this way: Excellent-condition, survivor cars are followed in value by the excellently restored examples. So how can barn finds, which are generally in far more deteriorated condition than an honest and usable survivor, sell for more than any of them in some cases?
To put this in perspective, let’s say we are valuing some works in the world of fine arts. You have two similarly sized paintings, both by Monet. They are of the same bucolic scene, likely painted in the same week, both signed by the artist. They have the same provenance, owned by the same family for just over 100 years. But one no longer has its original frame, was involved in a fire, and the painting is split in the middle by an ax used in putting out the fire. Which one is worth more? Logic would dictate that the undisturbed example is worth substantially more. Right now, with classic cars, this scenario is currently (but I would argue not permanently) turned on its head.
It’s important to keep in mind that in the classic car world, there is a distinct difference between a “survivor” and a “barn find.” A car can be both a barn find and a survivor, but few are. Let’s define the differences.
Survivor cars are well-preserved vehicles that are, in a sense, historical artifacts. Their preservation is impressive and their originality is both rare and impossible to replicate, so they are highly desirable. They retain most of their original surfaces. These surfaces include paint, chrome, exterior trim, glass, seats, fabrics, carpets, gauges, headliner, and interior trim. A survivor should retain its original engine, transmission, rear end, drivetrain, wheels, and frame or chassis. Wear parts are generally excluded in defining a survivor. Wear parts include the battery, tires, wiper blades, exhaust, brake pads or linings, filters, and other miscellaneous bits. In short, most of the physical parts and surfaces of a survivor car will be the same ones it had when it first left the factory.
This is where things get complicated with survivor cars, though. On the mostly cosmetic side, what about repair damage? A repaint done when a 70-year-old car was just 5 years old? How about replacement vinyl or leather? Carpets? Added equipment after the car left the factory, such as air conditioning in 1950-70s cars? On the mechanical side, questions can arise when a transmission was replaced, but how about an alternator?
Barn finds are the easier of the two to define, because their definition isn’t as strict. I have seen cars described as barn finds that are everywhere from weak parts cars all the way up to untouched and unspoiled cars that went right into the (mythical) barn (often a garage or warehouse) with 200 miles on them. The latter are full on survivors, too. The former are just barn finds, which can also include wrecks or cars that were in a fire, a flood, or some other disaster. Occasionally they are just parts of cars that are missing major components.
Like a survivor, these more deteriorated barn finds have unrepeatable originality. The difference is that they will need significant (and expensive) restorative work before they ever get on the road again. It’s a bit irrational, then, for such cars to bring top-dollar prices at auction. But there is a sort of just-discovered or buried treasure mystique to barn finds that excites the imagination. For the owner or restorer, barn finds can also represent a sort of blank slate, an opportunity to change or personalize a car in ways that would be a bit gauche on a cleaner example, and downright frowned upon on a survivor car. There’s no exact science to any of the variables that go into barn finds or their appeal, and the bidders in an auction always have different tastes and motivations from one sale to the next. Some barn finds bring huge money. Some don’t.
Regardless of people’s reasons for paying top dollar for a barn find, one of the things I often have to remind myself as an appraiser is that people don’t always act in their own best interests (well, at least what I perceive to be in their own best interest, anyway). And you know what, that’s fine. People are allowed to do whatever they want with their money, and it is clearly not the appraiser’s job to let their own feelings get in the way of rendering an opinion of value. That value opinion must be, for a market appraisal, based on examples that have been offered, or previously been offered in the marketplace.
Appraisers don’t make values; we report values as we find them in the marketplace. As of right now, there are still huge barn find sales that defy logic. As to how long we will see their prices encroaching on or even eclipsing the top values, let’s just hang on for the ride.
Not really had as barn finds are still subject to condition, history and demand vs availability.
While a barn find GTO 250 may not be $90m it still could be $10m or more with two motivated buyers. Since few are around and fewer for sale.
But there can be one of this ugly 250 based Ferrari models rusted out that is really a parts car for another 250.
Or a 1963 4 door Galaxie that is a great survivor but not worth much vs a light weight fast back with a 427.
I find this take a bit simplistic. Of course a barn find is going to be less than a “pristine” car, but there’s a lot of room to work with here. You list variables such as desirability and demand, which are finicky to analyze, yet imply the process is simple. Like the author says, people don’t always act in their best interest, but that could be paying $10,000 for a $5,000 neglected restoration project when you can barely afford the restoration.
I don’t see how the take expressed above adds anything of value to the conversation.
My definition of a barn find is a car that is largely complete albeit deteriorated and has some potential of actually being started and operated. As the saying goes, being born in a barn doesn’t make you a horse and junk in a barn doesn’t make a barn find
Dave is spot on, there’s just no accounting for individual tastes and motivations. As the saying goes, one man’s trash in another’s treasure.
The true thing that tells you if a barn find is of value or not is knowledge.
If you know what is of value. You can generally and fairly anticipate what it may bring. Be it a whole car or just an engine and even a part of a car.
A good history knowledge of cars in general can be a benefit in finding these cars no matter where they are. Too many just walk by them.
You also do not need to be an expert in many cases, Often you can google if a car is in demand.
“Appraisers don’t make values.” I disagree. Appraisers worked with investors and speculators for years to drive auction prices higher. If your 1 of 1 Hemi ‘Cuda or Bullitt Mustang sells for 4 million, fine. But if someone is trying to sell you a 67 Mustang as 1 of 40 because it’s a rare color, that shows how the market was inflated to the point that average collectors could no longer afford the cars from their youth. Now the market has collapsed, and my tri-five is worth less than the fair price I paid for it, despite spending thousands on improvements. Only a few investors make money on cars, usually selling them to other investors. Forget appraisals; if you like the car, buy it, if you don’t, walk away. Buy for love, not for money.
Sounds like you’ve worked with some bad ones. If your appraiser is not accredited by some regulating body then, I would trust them and their knowledge as far as I can throw them. Anyone can call themselves an “appraiser” but few professional, trustworthy ones exist in my opinion.
Looking through the auction catalog of all those parts and what they sold for is kind of astonishing.
I think the biggest factor is the car itself. If the “barn find” is quite rare, then sure, it might stir up some mightly wallet-related emtions at an auction. But yet another ordinary Mustang? C’mon man. My reasoning for determining value is to ask the question: “How likely is one to find another?” Another thing–the “market” is not just a database of One. The “market” is a repitition of similar cars selling repeatedly at a certain price point. One goofy sale of a gutted, burned out, chopped up Mustang fastback is not the “market”, or a predictor.
There are no barn find 250 GTOs. All of the originals are accounted for, and although many of the originals were rebuilt after track accidents and damage, they were rebuilt in period as racing cars. They were not valuable then. That came later, in different circumstances. Good replica Ferrari-based ‘GTO like objects’ sell for over a million dollars, now. I think many of them are owned by people who have an original GTO and don’t want to risk damaging it on the track.
Of the 21 or so original 427 Full Competition Cobra roadsters built, I have driven three. I can’t even come close to owning one, but I’ve driven them. All owned by the same individual and all multi-million dollar cars. His attitude – you can’t do more than $300,000 damage to one, so why not drive and enjoy!
I wouldn’t say that Hagerty is guilty of it, but I’m really tired of the term barn find.
I agree and another I am getting really, really tired of is “the malaise era” of cars referring to the ’80’s. During all the car shows and cruises I go to every year, I have never heard the term used in conversation. I only hear it used by automobile journalists who think it means something.
But it’s a good name for a great TV show.
Regarding the author’s description of barn finds as blank slates; to what extent is the current enthusiasm for restomodding fueling barn find prices? This is a relatively new and growing demand for non-original cars in need of restoration. And if so, will the demand for restomodding help keep barn find prices higher?
David, how then do you appraise a Barn Find? Would you value it at the same fair market value, as a similar vehicle without Barn Find history, or do you add value for a Barn Find story? If there is a Barn Find value bump, does it dissipate with time?
I’ve chased my share of “Barn Finds”. One thing learned real quick, Don’t asker the seller what they want for it The televised auctions have distorted what the value of “older cars” People that keep track of the market realize the reason those cars “on television” that sell for sometimes outrages prices have had every nut and bolt replaced. Check out the car very closely, always bring someone with you and make an offer. Make sure you leave yourself a little wiggle room The likehood is that tthe person selling thinks they have a gold mine.
Don’t forget auction fever. The intense atmosphere of the auction often makes people act irrationally. Many people get great deals, but many people also get burned.
I have a ‘barn find’. Or rather, from just outside the barn. She is 87 years old. I got her in 2021, and had last been licensed in 1960. The owner drove her until she did not run anymore. Parked her first in a brother’s garage while working overseas for 10 years, upon his return he then moved her outside his barn on the family orchard always intending to fix her up. Without proper knowledge or time this never happened and Alzheimer’s took him in 2020. I purchased her and after 766 days of restoration from the frame up have enjoyed her for 700 miles so far. It was so exciting 1st starting her up after the reassembly, jumping through all the government hoops for insurance and license, and then watching the odometer roll over her 1st new mile in over 6 decades! That is the magic in a ‘barn find’. I fully understand the romance. We cannot get animate objects back from the grave, but we can with mechanical ones. Every start-up since causes excitement looking back on the journey.
Bob gets it! That is truly the passion we all share here. Watching an odometer that has been “seized” (for any number of reasons) start turning again! The best view is the open road coming at you from the driver seat!
Exactly! Perfectly stated.
What would you consider a 1967 Ford Mustang 289 convertible T5 from Germany worth. It was found in a barn 3 years ago and moved to a garage. It was parked in the barn in 1980. 44 years ago. Only 151 were made in 1967 and this is a 1of1 per its Marti report. Very curious on any thoughts.
Thank you
Add a boatload of body, frame and interior pictures
Rusted out hulks going for millions blow my mind. This rusted hunk of rotted iron will never be a car again without fabrication of almost everything it feels more replica than an original. But those with the money to burn will if the emotion is high enough.