The Collector Car Market’s Slide Has Stopped—For Now
The Hagerty Market Rating has finally stopped—or at least paused—its free fall. After a 10-month losing streak, the Rating increased a quarter of a point this month. This is the largest single-month increase in more than a year and a half, and the new rating of 66.1 is the highest since December 2023.
Despite the Hagerty Market Rating’s slight climb this month, its corresponding open-ended index (which excludes the subjective expert sentiment poll) continues to fall, and provides another view of how much the market has swung. Since its peak in December 2022, the Hagerty Market Index has dropped nearly 21 points after decreasing 15 consecutive months.
The same four component metrics that moved up last month are up again this month. However, this time they were enough to sway the Market Rating in a positive direction.
With a surge in average sales price, the Private Sales Activity metric saw its largest single-month increase since late 2021, when the market was in a buying frenzy. For owners who kept their cars, they continue to be more likely to increase the insured value of their vehicles. The ratio of insured value increases to decreases for “broad market” vehicles (valued under $200k) has moved up two months in a row, following 14 months of continuous decreases. This ratio is still very much in a positive direction: For every call Hagerty gets to drop the insured value of a vehicle, 8 members call to increase their insured value. This ratio for vehicles valued over $200k didn’t fair as well, with its component metric falling 2.2 points—taking its biggest hit in over a year.
The overall economy continues to push off a recession. The macroeconomic indicators we track for the Market Rating have increased for the fourth month in a row. In similar fashion, optimism among our industry experts has increased to its highest point since last summer—quoting many positive sales results from the auctions in Florida last month.
Correspondingly, the raw numbers behind the Auction Median Sale Price metric finally stopped decreasing. However, due to inflation, this metric was in the red this month. Its 0-100 rating dropped 0.67 points to 38.66—its lowest value since this metric was added to the calculation in 2012.
In fact, all metrics we measure had to fight the highest monthly inflation (+0.4%) in the last six months, so the small increase in the Market Rating this month came as a surprise. Enough metrics were able to overcome these headwinds to achieve the overall uptick, but for some, inflation negated any progress they made. For example, the real value of the Blue Chip Index, which consists of the average #2 condition value of the Mercedes Gullwing and its 24 closest peers, rose 0.03% this month to $2,578,533. This minor increase was unable to outpace inflation, and the 0-100 rating for this metric dropped 0.09 points to its lowest value in ten years.
For the most part, the component metrics of the Market Rating are still falling. Only four of 14 saw an increase this month. It’s very likely that the uptick seen in the Market Rating this month will be short-lived, but only time will tell. We will continue to watch the market as the driving season approaches.
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More time is needed. Also depends on the car too. One month is not a trend.
I totally agree with you. I’m on BAT almost daily, and sales there on stuff I watch for have fallen recently. The amount of no sale listings has seemed to tick upwards because I think some sellers don’t realize the market has changed.
“The overall economy continues to push off a recession. The macroeconomic indicators we track for the Market Rating have increased for the fourth month in a row.”
Is it really? You will never get honest numbers from the current administration in a major election year, they want to retain power and redefined “recession”. I don’t see things getting better at the moment, the slide seems to be continuing economically. People are still losing jobs.
As for cars, many months would determine the trends direction, too early to say if it is done sliding or not.
“Is it really?” Yes, it is.
“People are still losing jobs” Not around here in Ohio. There’s so many places still looking for people. There’s a fair amount of job openings and no shoes to fill them. Maybe in some places, but not overall from what I can tell.
Dang, that .03% rise put the Gullwing out of my budget… *snort*
Yes, it is really. Do you see signs of a recession? The largest indicator is massive layoffs nationwide, across different sectors. You say people are still losing jobs. Everyone else says unemployment is below 4%, inflation has ebbed, the stock market is OK, and manufacturing is actually up for once. But hey, you do you
While some economic indicators ticked-up last month, the six and twelve month trend of Leading Economic Indicators is still negative.
Interest rates remain high – something the ballooning Federal debt will not help – and yes, people are still losing their jobs across many sectors of the economy. Anecdotally, both my wife and daughter survived job cuts recently and work in industries where cuts are running rampant (Tech and Media).
So I am happy to “Me do me”, but don’t take my word for it: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators
Oh, c’mon man! The Dow is pushing 40 ( which is impressive) but investors don’t look at that. They look at what they are invested in and how it did. It’s all circumstantial. In very simplistic terms, if homes in your area increased in value and you’re planing to sell, simplify, kick back and make a move that’s a win for you. If on the other hand you’re a potential buyer not so much. Location, location, location. Like, likewise jobs . What might have been ‘salad days’ for you might have been otherwise for others and visa versa. What do you do? Where you at? The – “government” – is not, by any means, singularly responsible for the state of the economy good or bad. Far far from it as a matter of fact. There is no wave of the hand magic wand. The complexities involved are beyond the scope of even the most knowledgeable. The sky is not falling. we’re more than fine. 200k for a collector car is a luxury item, not a need to tighten the belts and clip more coupons. I’m guessing RobH does NOT think he’d have his Gullwing if only he’d ordered those burgers without cheese.
The collector market went Insane (it overheated) -Buyers finally said “Enough is Enough” -not to mention many folks priced out of the market– It had to Correct– The economy Is good (except if your a Trumper ) then Nothing is good if your man isn’t in power– Unrealistic expectations have skewed the market– this happens from time to time much the same as stock markets–