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The Collector Car Market Has Dipped to Pre-Pandemic Levels
The Hagerty Market Rating measures the current status of the collector car market in terms of activity or “heat,” directional momentum, and the underlying strength of the market. It is expressed as a closed 0-100 number with a corresponding open-ended index (like the DJIA or NASDAQ Composite). To learn more about how we calculate the Hagerty Market Rating, read here.
The Hagerty Market Rating continues to narrowly avoid dipping into the 50s. After falling 0.29 points last month and another 0.33 points this month, the current value of 60.39 is the lowest the Market Rating has been since November 2020, when the classic car market’s pandemic boom was starting. It’s fair to say that the market has returned to a pre-pandemic normal.
The Hagerty Market Index, an open-ended stock-market-style version of the Market Rating, also decreased this month, though by only 0.26 points. In the 27 months following the Hagerty Market Index’s high point in late 2022, it has only increased twice. While currently at its lowest value in three years (175.47), it is still relatively high compared to the Index’s 18-year-long history, as visible in the chart below.
As the market continues to slump, vehicles trading hands privately are doing so at lower and lower prices. The percentage of cars selling above their insured value has dropped to 38.9 percent, its lowest point in over three years. At its peak in Summer 2022, more than half of private sales were selling above insured value. The 38.9 percent figure seems even lower when one considers that insured values are rising at a much slower rate than in previous years. For cars valued under $250K, the ratio of Insured Value Increases to Decreases has dropped to its lowest point since December 2021. That said, we still receive 7.7 calls from our members to increase the insured value of their vehicle for every one call we get to lower the value. For vehicles valued over $250K, the ratio saw its first bump in 16 months, though it sits much lower at just 1.48 to one.
At public auctions, it appears that sellers have finally lowered their expectations. While the Overall Auction Activity metric increased for only the second time in two years, it was solely due to an increased number of cars selling at auction. The other component in this metric, Median Sale Price, continued its 23-month losing streak. More and more owners have decided now is the time to sell, and are accepting lower bids than in recent years.
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This trend was apparent at the high-dollar auctions earlier this month in Florida. Seven-figure cars and Enzo-era Ferraris had much improved sell-through rates compared to the Monterey auctions in August. Ninety percent of vehicles valued at $1M or more successfully sold at the Florida Spring auctions, which is a substantial improvement over Monterey’s 55 percent. For Enzo-era Ferraris, the sell-through rate of 53 percent in Monterey improved to 71 percent at the Amelia and Miami sales. However, the higher sales rate among these segments isn’t a sign of an improving market, but instead an increased willingness from sellers to accept lower prices.
Auction analyst and industry expert Rick Carey chose one car to highlight this phenomenon: the 1959 Ferrari 250 GT LWB California Spider Competizione offered at Broad Arrow’s Amelia auction. This car was originally sold by RM at Monterey 2007 for $4.95M, after which it was restored and sold at RM Sotheby’s New York 2017 auction for $17,990,000. Bidding was more restrained at Amelia this year, resulting in a sale of $9,465,000, including buyer’s premium. While the car has seen some use since the 2017 sale, it wasn’t enough to explain a 47 percent drop in value. This sale fell below the low estimate expected by the auction company, and Rick noted that “the car was announced as ‘for sale’ before the successful hammer bid was reached, meaning that even the auction company and the seller recognized that the ground had shifted since that monumental day in New York seven and a half years ago.” Rick continued, “This is a lovely car with a significant racing history, impeccable provenance and no stories. It’s worth top dollar, but in 2025 ‘top dollar’ apparently means 60 percent of what it meant in 2017.” The rest of our industry experts agreed that the classic car market, as well as the greater global economy, is “unsteady” and dropped their average score back into the high 40s.
As the weather warms in North America and the driving season begins, we will likely see the Hagerty Market Rating continue to fall, as fewer major market events take place over the summer. Will the Rating finally drop into the 50s next month? We will need to wait and see.
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Each classic owner has their own parameters when restoring and ownership, either they purchased a barn find, purchased a restored classic or had a mothballed project. I find the 3rd situation is ideal as no initial investment has taken place so more interest in DIY is present. That is where the best value sits.
If only that were true. Collectable porsches have almost doubled in 48 months and you can’t swing a dead cat without hitting a 6k 50 year old bucket of rust on Market Place.