What Industry Pros Say About the 2024 Collector Car Market
We dive into the data quite a bit on Hagerty Insider, but additional context is always important in a market that, at the end of the day, primarily operates on emotions and relationships. That’s why we regularly talk to the people who don’t just watch and analyze the collector car market, but live it and keep it moving. Now that 2024 is on the way out, we reached out to industry pros and experts to see how the market has changed this year, how it hasn’t, and what it looks like for 2025.
Renewed Activity
In our last conversations over the summer, market observers noted some softness and cooling off in certain segments after the pandemic boom, as well as a general return to rationality and stability. Since those conversations there were mediocre results for high-end cars at the Monterey auctions and consistent drops in the Hagerty Market Rating, but most of the experts we talked to have noticed a more active market in the last few months of the year.
For Dave Kinney, founder of US Appraisal and publisher of the Hagerty Price Guide, “The market was in a spiritual decline in the last half of 2024, but I expect things to look better for 2025, at least initially.” For Barney Ruprecht, vice president of Auctions at Broad Arrow, the market in the last few month’s is “more active overall. And today’s market compared to 12 months ago is significantly more active. The beginning of the year held many questions, and over time those have been answered with increased activity. That is not to say the market is up overall, but that renewed activity is climbing.”
John Temerian, founder of the Miami supercar dealer Curated, also asserts that, “Since September the market seems invigorated and I feel that people are optimistic about 2025 and the collector car market.”
For his part, John Kraman, director of company relations for Mecum Auctions and the company spokesperson at public events, contrasts the first part of 2024 with the second half for different reasons: “Mecum Kissimmee and Mecum Indy [Mecum’s two largest annual sales] are held in the first half of the year, so overall numbers may appear to be stronger early on, but this is not necessarily the case. National-level auctions slot in earlier in the year, and the regional ones are typically in the second half.” So while Mecum’s overall sales numbers may have trailed off in the second half of this year, they do so every year based on the company’s schedule.
Waiting and Seeing
Part of the sluggishness and then renewed interest in the market over the last few months may have come down to what several market observers referred to as a “wait and see” approach with changes in the economy as well as the U.S. election. “Not that the result really had anything to do with the world of cars, but people got kind of distracted and nervous, and they sat on their hands,” says Mark Hyman, founder of Hyman Ltd. in St. Louis. “So we had a period of about 60 to 90 days where, leading up to the elections, everybody’s distracted and waiting. Well, now it’s behind us and our business is just really, really robust and we are looking forward to a really strong 2025.”
Ruprecht, similarly, observes that, “Late last year and earlier in 2024 people seemed to be waiting for indications of what might happen. Today everyone seems more prepared to come to an agreement and listen to the market.” Temerian also notes that, “Regardless of your political view, I feel like a massive amount of enthusiasts and collectors were sitting on the sidelines this year in an anxious pause over the election.”
But just because the election is over does not necessarily mean there is a clear path forward in the collector car market. “The overall economy, in my opinion, is on a sugar high right now,” says Kinney. “And when the cold reality of what’s going to happen in the economy of 2025 and 2026 becomes a little better known, we’ll have to wait and see what happens.”
What’s Hot, and What’s Not?
More modern cars have been on experts’ minds for several years now, and that shows no sign of changing. For Kinney, “At this point it’s OK to consider your 15-year-old or even 10-year-old vehicle a collector car, because that’s just how the market has shifted.”
“I’m surprised at the level of which modern collectibles have increased at auctions. They have always been a component of the major auctions, but they are now significantly more present,” says Ruprecht. “That is not to say the traditional segments of Post-War Sports Cars or Pre-War Classics are going away, but the lesser examples of those are being replaced with more modern ones.” He focuses on Ferrari as an example: “A Ferrari Enzo or 288 GTO today makes up one of the ‘must haves’ if you’re building a world-class collection. In years past that might have been a 400 Superamerica. The Superamerica is still world class, but there are more willing and active buyers for the 288 or Enzo.”
Ruprecht also says that, “Modern Lamborghinis, specifically very rare variants of Diablo and Murcielago, have taken me by surprise with increased interest.”
Temerian has observed the same. When it comes to Lamborghinis, “There is a massive amount of excitement around Gallardo manuals today. Since the wild $578K result on Bring a Trailer for the 1-of-3 Gallardo 6-Speed Manual Performante, I see all generations looking at these cars.”
Diablos are another highlight: “There is no question that some of the Diablo results in Monterey were very impressive! Diablo 6.0 and SV examples trading above $700k is somewhat vindicating for someone who is passionate about these cars. I am blown away by the results of Non-Rosso Corsa Ferrari examples that have commanded some big premiums in both the private and public markets.”
Temerian notes strength in high-quality 1980s-2000s cars in general, from Acura NSXs to Porsche Carrera GTs. For him, “The biggest softening in the market is the newer exotics and many cars from the 1960s and 1970s.” As for the newer, late-model exotics, there is also a disconnect between buyers and sellers when it comes to trades: “The market is flooded with Ferrari 296 examples and everyone is upside down.”
At the very tip-top of the market, Kinney says, “The weakness in the $1M-plus sales has been something I’ve been watching, but part of it is that a lot of those cars just haven’t come to market, especially when you’re talking multiple millions. But the next couple of years are going to be interesting as people in that segment make changes to their collection, like whether a guy is upgrading or downgrading, buying one $25M car or five $5M cars, or even just getting out of the collector car world altogether.”
One more segment worth watching in the future is what Ruprecht refers to as “‘custom,’ very low-production cars. Outside of Singer, which is a well-known brand, cars which are executed to an exceptional level have been accepted by the market and valued as such. These include the new Lanzante Porsche TAG Turbo and Canepa 959SC. Previously, any kind of modified car would be looked at as lesser in the collector space, but that is changing. Not all custom cars perform this way. Only the exceptional ones.”
More Than Ever, Condition Matters
Condition has always mattered to anyone buying and selling an older automobile. So have things like documentation, options, colors, and details like matching-numbers drivetrains. The past few years, though, have seen more money chasing the best of the best examples (lowest miles, rarest options, best colors, cleanest presentation, etc.), even if lesser examples of the same car struggle to sell. Reasons for this shift in buyer preference include more expensive restoration and service costs for cars that need work, but this trend of top condition and quality bringing top dollar no matter what shows no sign of reversing, according to our market observers.
“It’s not a surprising trend,” says Hyman, “but it is more true now than ever. There was a time when we could sell any car in any condition, whether it was in pieces or it was a concours show car. Today, cars with stories, cars with mismatched engines and cars with prior damage history suffer more than they did in the past. Like if a 300SL or a Ferrari or some other relatively important car didn’t have the right engine, it used to be that people would discount it a bit and still buy it, but today things like that make people pass on it altogether.”
Ruprecht also observes that, “Even if the market has been down overall [over the last 12 months], quality cannot be replicated easily. When something truly great has come up for sale it has typically sold very well.”
“Anybody who follows the online marketplaces will see that other than the best of the best, lowest miles, best presentation or very hard to find models, mediocre cars are bringing mediocre prices right now,” says Kinney. “That wasn’t necessarily true in ’21 and ’22 when we were coming off the pandemic. For a long time the trend has been ‘buy the best car,’ and that trend has basically doubled down.”
Changing Buyers, and Different Ways to Buy
We talk a lot about changing demographics on Hagerty Insider, along with the different ways people buy and sell automobiles. Enthusiasts have clearly gotten more comfortable dealing with a car purchase at a distance, as 2024 marked the first time that twice as many cars sold via online auctions than at live ones. And even at live-auction staple Mecum, “We have seen substantial growth in absentee bidders and now have a full department in place to accommodate this audience,” according to Kraman.
But Hyman has also noticed differences in buyers that go deeper than age or demographics: “I think there are more people in the market today that don’t have as much historical background and experience with vintage cars, so they’re buying what’s en vogue, what the flavor of the day is. A lot of the guys today have a lot of money, but they don’t know as much as the generation prior. That’s kind of a new phenomenon because it used to be that a lot of my customers knew more than I did. It has been a really gradual shift in this direction over the last 10 years, but I think it has accelerated a tremendous amount in the last three to five years.”
How a lot of new buyers interact with their cars is another related trend, linked to the shift in preferences about condition outlined above. “A lot of people are buying cars to do events,” according to Hyman. “They’ll buy a car to do the Colorado Grand or buy a car to do the Copperstate, etc. They know what they want to do with the car. They know what the purpose of it is. But more and more of them don’t know a great deal about the cars themselves. They don’t know how to work on them… And the cost of restoration is extraordinary, and the number of people who perform restoration is shrinking. So the result of that is that people want to buy done, done, done cars in great condition, fully sorted with no stories.”
Looking Ahead
For 2025, both Kinney and Kraman have a positive outlook for the big January auctions in Kissimmee, Florida and Scottsdale, Arizona. Broad Arrow aims to continue expanding in the new year as well, and although Hyman “has never had a bad year,” he foresees a strong 2025. For Temerian, meanwhile, “Our goal is not to sell more cars, rather to continue focusing down our rabbit hole, investing more into great research, and chasing very special examples.” And for buyers, regardless of taste, budget, or whether you pay attention to market trends at all, Kinney’s message is simple: “Buy what you love.”
