Media | Articles
The Collector Car Market Continues Its Gradual Slide in February
The Hagerty Market Rating measures the current status of the collector car market in terms of activity or “heat,” directional momentum, and the underlying strength of the market. It is expressed as a closed 0-100 number with a corresponding open-ended index (like the DJIA or NASDAQ Composite). To learn more about how we calculate the Hagerty Market Rating, read here.
After a small bump last month, the Hagerty Market Rating is back to its gradual slide towards “flat market” territory. Following a 0.29-point drop this month, the Market Rating currently sits at 60.72, its lowest point since the fall of 2020. The Market Rating seems reluctant to dip into the 50s, which has only happened once in the last 10 years (September 2020), but will likely happen again in the next few months if it continues its current pace.
The Hagerty Market Index, an open-ended stock-market-style version of the Market Rating, also decreased this month. After a 1.54-point drop, the Market Index sits at 175.73. While this is the lowest value in three years, it's still relatively high compared to the Index's 18-year-long history. Prior to the recent spike starting in 2022, the only other time the Index has been higher than 175 was during a 16-month streak in early 2015.
Last month, over 6000 vehicles were offered at live auctions in Florida and Arizona. While the Count of Cars Sold at Auction (a moving 12-month average of the number of vehicles sold at auctions) increased slightly, it wasn't enough to increase the Overall Auction Activity metric, which is currently at its lowest point in four years. This combined metric has been continually pulled down by the Auction Median Price, which is on a 22-month losing streak and currently sits at 23.1, a record low. Inflation is no longer the main issue, as the real dollar value has dropped nine months in a row. The current median sale price of $27,500 is the lowest real value in nearly five years. In reality, prices have fallen back to their pre-pandemic norm.
This was welcome news to our industry experts, whose outlook increased slightly this month (this was the only other metric to do so). Their average rating of the current classic car market is the highest it has been in the past year. That said, on a scale of 0-100, they only give it a 51. Our experts cite good sell-through-rates at the January auctions, albeit at lower prices than a couple years ago, but they saw plenty of bidders with even obscure cars selling.
Marketplace
Buy and sell classics with confidence
Cars changing hands privately are also doing so at lower prices. The average sale price in the private market dropped $600 this month to its lowest real dollar value in nine months. Add in the fact that only 39 percent of vehicles are selling over their insured value, and it pulls down the Private Sales Activity metric to its lowest point in three-and-a-half years.
Owners who held on to their vehicles are seeing values fall, and most are deciding not to raise the insured value of their vehicles. For broad market vehicles (<$250k) the ratio of owners increasing vs. decreasing their insured values has dropped below eight-to-one for the first time in over three years. For high-end vehicles, this ratio is currently on a 15-month losing streak and has dropped below 1.5-to-1.0 for the first time in four years.
That's not to say there haven't been any big sales at the top of the market. So far this year, two vehicles have sold in the 8-figures. A Le Mans winning 1964 Ferrari 250 LM sold for nearly $36M in Paris, and just a few days before that, a 1954 Mercedes-Benz W 196 R Stromlinienwagen sold for $53M in Germany. This is a reminder that the upper end of the market is often detached from the rest.
Last year, I predicted that the Rating would be in the 50s by now. While it has continually defied this prediction, it is inching closer and closer each month. With no major auctions on the horizon until Amelia Island in early March (which won't be included until the April Market Rating update), it is likely that the Market Rating will continue to fall next month, potentially into the 50s. However, I've been proven wrong before ...
Find more values
Search for prices of other cars, trucks, vans and motorcycles
So the slow slide continues, not enough to notice unless you are selling and waiting I suppose.
A healthy market self-corrects and this one is doing just that. This is good news for the majority of “average joe” classic car owners and potential owners. Prices will get a bit more realistic and perhaps a bit more sane. People will enter, and stay in, the game more for the fun (translation: twisted stressful enjoyment) and less for the idea of ridiculously rapid flipping. Time to just drive!
Eliminating the Grade 1 cars which are for collectors and not us ordinary drivers of classic cars we then have the Grade 3 group and lower echelon of Grade 2. Now there is an impromptu car gathering where I live in Contra Costa and people have money. Started about the time of Covid and I stop by now and then. I have watched the demographics. The older crowd, say a minimum of 70 and up tend to have the cars from the 50’s to the 70’s. Could be a MG TC all the way up to a 70’s Ferrari. Just talked to a gentleman in his early 80’s drivimg in with a 72 BMW 3.0CS in red that caught my attention.
OTOH, over time some younger crowd has shown up which would be 45 and under. They have cars less than 20 years old and some brand new exotics. The dichotomy is striking between the two groups. I can also tell you there are no older full size cars ever seen there unless I bring mine which are a 67 Parklane, 72 Ambassador wagon, and 73 Polara. Who comes up to me when those are there? The crowd in their late 70’s to mid 80’s but not younger. My take is obvious in that few in the younger crowd aren’t attracted, much less care, about the cars of my youth. If they don’t care they are not ever going to buy and so the demographics for my type of classic car is evaporating. Only exception would be high end muscle cars but then what they do to them…
I am curious if you care much for cars of your parents’ youth? I notice you did not mention owning any cars older than 1967. I think the cars that are most meaningful to people are the ones that they grew up with.
This is a most interesting comment on the real market that is not for collectors. I have noticed also the interest and the age groups. I am early 60’s and most interested in cars of my youth, which is to say cars I read about in Road & Track, knew about and drove when I was 15 – 30 years old, vehicles new 1970s – 1990s. Vehicles before the child bearing years, during which all becomes a heap of practical vehicles bought for budget, children, work and commuting. None of the new vehicles interest much, all looking the same because of aerodynamics, plastic and frivolous electronics. And now I buy the square body Suburban so I can carry dogs, grandkids and such, ha! At least it can tow a trailer if I ever can afford a Corvette!