Horse Trading: Which Cars Do These Owners Buy Next?
Most people who own a car or truck get the newer version of whatever they’re already driving when it is time for a change. The new one is probably a bit bigger; it might be more efficient, probably safer, and has some new connectivity features with buttons (or without). Car enthusiasts are not like most people. They might get the same vehicle over and over in a different color or with different options each time. They might always get the same model year or generation, will love one design while hating the ones that came before and/or after. They also might buy much older or much newer examples than their last purchase. In short, they’re a lot less straightforward in their buying habits.
That’s not to say there aren’t discernible patterns in those habits. Using Hagerty’s insurance policy data, we can identify “gateway cars”—the ones that are an especially popular next acquisition for a particular group of owners. Among the four popular model groups shown in the graphs below, we see some with strong in-group tendencies, some with a trade-up progression, and others with a mix of both. We also see which generations are popular and which tend to be ignored.
The Ford Mustang is among our most popular models to be insured by Hagerty, and with 60-plus years of Mustangs for enthusiasts to choose from, we can see some clear ownership trends. Based on the length of the arc, we see that the 1965-66 Mustangs are the most popular examples for a Mustang owner to get next.
Primarily, those who get a 1965-66 Mustang already have one (the arrow that loops back), but there’s also strong interest from the 1967-68, 1969-70, and 1971-73 cars (the arrows from those back to the segment for the 1965-66 cars). For all Mustang generations, an owner with one example is likely to get another example from that same generation next. In some cases, starting with the 1987-93 cars, there is also a good chance they’ll get a Mustang from a newer generation.
The Chevrolet Corvette has been around even longer than the Mustang, but we see some of the same patterns here, too. C2 (1963-67) Corvette owners will most likely get another. Same for C3 Corvettes, even after splitting it into chrome bumper (1968-72) and later (1973-82) cars. C4 (1984-96) owners are most likely to get another C4, but are also more likely to skip a generation and get a C6 (2005-13) than they are a C5 (1997-2004).
C5 owners also commonly stay within that generation of Corvette, but they often trade up to a C6 as well. Conversely, C6 owners are more likely to get a C7 rather than another C6, and C7 owners are more likely to trade up to a C8 (2020-25). We see a bit of that trading up pattern with the C1 (1955-62) owners, too, as they are likely to get a C2.
Porsche 911 owners seem to be very particular about their preferred 911 generation, but they also show tendencies to trade up and buy another car from the same generation. With the latest 992-generation 911s, we see both strong interest from existing 992 and 991 (2013-19) owners trading up, along with a few 993 (1995-98) owners. Similarly, with 991-generation cars, the 997 (2005-12) owners trade up, but the 991 owners also are likely to get another”—as are a handful of 964 and 993 owners. Owners of 997s often trade within that generation, too.
Owners of 996-generation (1999-2004) cars tend to get another or trade up to a 997. However, 993 cars might be the least sticky of all the 911 generations. Owners often get one after having a Carrera 3.2 (1984-89), or SWB (1964-68), but having gotten that 993, they are more likely to go get a 991 or 992 next, rather than another 993.
Ferrari has offered a mid-engine V-8 model since the 1970s, and many of the company’s all-time best-sellers have been mid-engine V-8s. Ferrari also encourages owners to buy newer models so that these owners can then get an invite to purchase limited-production Ferrari supercars. This may explain why we see almost no trading within a generation of Ferrari V-8, but lots of trading up. The 1975-85 308 Pininfarina series of cars has some trading within, but they are more likely to get a 360 (1999-2005). Similarly, 328 (1985-89) owners are likely to skip ahead to the F355 (1994-99), as F355 owners are likely to go for a 360 or 458 (2010-16).
Owners of the 458 (despite it being the last naturally aspirated car) are likely to not look back to previous generations but go forward to a turbocharged 488 (2016-20) or F8 (2020-24). Only with the 488 and F8 is there much trading within the generation, but even 488 owners are more likely to trade up to a F8. Notably, the 348 (1989-95), 308 GT4 (1973-80) and F430 (2004-09) tend to be relatively unpopular, as the few owners of those cars tend to get something else next.
Even if you don’t own a Mustang, Corvette, 911, or V-8 Ferrari, do you tend to trade up or just trade for another?
There is no real science to this. It is all about money. Generally you can upgrade but many will not make a big jump.
You will pay a bit more for a newer model or a more valuable model.
That is unless you went in early on Nividia stock and now you can order right from Ferrari.
In the car market there is a place for most people with some kind of a car. You can always upgrade as your place in life improves and you get the kid out of collage. My payments after graduation with no debt for my son to a new collector car.
I always put family first but now is the time to play and do it before I am too old to enjoy it. But never put family second to any car.
I drive a C5 Z06 CE because I wanted one as a kid. Emotion is 95% of why I drive what I drive. 5% risk tolerance and money.
I can’t really move on right now from what I have but I also was not looking to. i entertained the idea a while ago but decided I did not really want to.
There is an amazing amount of stiction to the ‘unpopular’ 73-82 Vette. The great thing about a car on the lower end of the value scale is you have no qualms about actually driving it
We have a 1980 Corvette 4 speed, aftermarket mirrored t tops. It is still in beautiful shape and it was joke money to buy 6 years ago. We drive it all the time. The 993 generation cars are great cars. I think many owners are shocked at how much more everything costs vs the 3.2. And they have significant issues over the 3.2. There’s issues with secondary air injection , and top and rebuilds due to bronze valve guides. The rear suspension components are an issue. The climate controller and the air control flap are issues. The door straps wear and require significant work to repair. There are issues with the cooling fan scraping the housing then needs housing and fan need to be replaced. There are significant issues with coking. These motors are rebuilt at the 70 to 80,000 mile point. Rather than the 150,000 mile point of the 3.2s. After dropping 25k into servicing a 993, most owners do move on.
I had 2 1967 Mustangs and sold one to buy a 987.2 Porsche Boxster.
Wow!
I must be one of those Mustang Unicorns then, as I purchased my first Mustang…a 1985 Mustang GT H.O. new before children and while my wife and I were both working. It was my first opportunity to purchase a new Mustang that was over 200 Horsepower, and not knowing where the brand was headed with the power numbers at that time, I decided to pull the trigger. Heck, if it wasn’t for John Coletti, rear drive Mustangs probably wouldn’t be around today, as Ford was set to move to a front drive platform after 1993. We also purchased new a 2017 S550 premium with a Performance Package. This purchase was surprisingly driven by my lovely wife, for which I quickly capitulated. This purchase was post college for both kids. We still have the ’85, and they both reside next to each other in their own garage. The contrast in driving both is car obvious given what has transpired in 32 years of engineering and history.
I started with a foxbody GT mustang in 1996, traded that in for a 2008 Shelby GT500 in 2016 and then jumped ship, going to a 2020 hellcat redeye widebody challenger in 2023. I did the jump to a dodge because it was way more comfortable. At age 69 when i bought the Dodge, the 2008 Shelby GT500 was a really nice quick car but not built for comfort. My bum got sore if I drove it from Ottawa to Montreal (120 miles). I believe that comfort as we get older should be added into this equation.
My first Mustang was a 1980 Turbo bought new when I graduated college. It was such a POS it took till 2019 before I bought another Mustang, a Shelby GT 350. It is so much fun, I bought a 65 A code convertible as a project. I also have owned many Corvettes. Ive had my 70 roadster for over 35 years. In that time span I’ve also owned 3 other C3s, two C4s, a C5, a C6 and a C7. The last three I bought new and traded up. I have no plans to trade up from my 2019 Z06 to a C8. I’m a manual trans guy.
nice power play on ‘got stick’!
I have owned four Mustangs: 1980 with the old Falcon 200CID straight six, 2007 GT, 2016 Eco-Boost and currently a 2010 GT with less than 10K miles, in that order. But you know what? Those abstract colorful circles are really pretty!
In addition to those who stay within your tribe, there are also the people brave ones who often change brands like they change socks. For many, these brands are their world and the idea of moving to another world sounds as unappealing and scary as actually taking off in a rocket ship to visit another planet.
Out of sync. I buy cars that I truly enjoy and I keep them. There only 4 but they range from 22 to 53 years old. Every drive is a mix off great memories and new experiences. I will pass on before anyone gets to enjoy what I have preserved. John
I’ve been all over the map. My first car was a ’67 Pontiac GTO that I bought in 11th grade and was my daily driver. Two years later I traded it in for a ’69 Camaro (the rare LM1 model), which was also my daily driver. Eventually classics like these were no longer a daily driver but a second vehicle solely for fun. A ’67 Triumph TR4A, a ’65 Mustang hardtop, a ’69 El Camino (this one was unplanned. I broke my left foot [clutch foot] playing basketball and both my wife and I had 5-speed manual vehicles. Since I had to get an automatic to drive until the cast came off, I figured I’d get something cool to drive). Next was a ’63 Buick Riviera, and finally a ’63 Corvette Roadster with the L76 340HP engine.
I have purchased 68 new cars and too have ben all over the vehicle spectrum. The best, 2016 911S. The C5 and C7 a close 2nd. I have had 3 Mustangs, a Mach1 and 5th gen GT. I have S650 GT now. I must have a 3 pedal car always. Please GM put a manual gearbox in the C8.
It would be my last car purchase. “Really.”
As a Ferrari 308 owner, I have no interest in trading-up to a more modern Ferrari. My “toys” are chosen to maximize driver involvement and minimize the number of systems between driver and road. In fact I recently went the opposite direction; swapping my injected ‘83 QV for a carbureted ‘79 308.
From a Mustang perspective, I went straight from the “4 eyed” 79-86 fox generation right to the S197. I dont see much reflection for that in that graphic, but the S197 (phase 2, 2010-14) is the first Mustang to garner my interest since owning my 84 GT. I never liked the look of the aero fox or the SN95 cars that followed. The S550/650s (same car, lets face it), despite being fast and tech happy, dont really excite me much either. So I might be holding on to my 2010 GT until something new I like comes along.