Hagerty Market Rating drops for sixth month in a row

The Hagerty Market Rating is a monthly assessment of the collector car market’s activity and strength. For a detailed explanation of what goes into this rating, please click here.

The Hagerty Market Rating (HMR) decreased for a sixth consecutive month, to its current value of 68.03. While the Market Rating is down 10 whole points from its peak last summer, there are signs that the freefall in the collector-car market is slowing.

This month’s -0.31 point decrease was the smallest monthly decrease in the past 15 months.

This slight decrease is a little surprising when you consider that all but one of the 14 component metrics used in the Market Rating calculation fell in October. But, compared to recent history, most metrics dropped very little.

For example, the Auction Activity metric saw its smallest decrease in nine months. Similarly, the Broad Market Insured Values metric just experienced the smallest drop of its 11-month losing streak. This streak immediately followed 28 months of consecutive increases, reminding us that this continuous slide in the Market Rating is really a symptom of correction, not an implosion.

The one metric that increased this month was the Average Condition #3 Value in the Hagerty Price Guide, which went through its quarterly update at the start of the month. These quarterly price guide updates are a good time to take note of how the various market forces we measure affect real-world values.

Overall, the combined Hagerty Price Guide metric decreased 0.21 points to its lowest value since summer 2014. This metric is pulled down primarily by the price guide’s median condition #3 (“Good”) number staying flat for the past seven months while inflation ate away at its true value. The only metric of the price guide that was able to outpace inflation was the average condition #3 value, which saw a 0.09-point bump, but this was not enough to force a move in the positive direction.

Many vehicles shed value this past quarter, and the drops weren’t isolated to one segment or price point. The Blue Chip Index, which includes the Mercedes-Benz 300SL and other high-dollar vehicles, dropped to its lowest point in over nine years. To demonstrate just how steep inflation has been since 2020, consider that the current average condition #2 (“Excellent”) value of the Blue Chip Index’s 25 component cars is $2,574,200. The last time the index’s score was this low was in winter 2014, when the average #2 value was $1,942,760—32.5 percent lower.

On the other end of the price spectrum, it’s a similar story. The Hagerty Hundred Index, or the average value of the 100 most insured vehicles in the Hagerty Price Guide, dropped a third of a point this month, despite the real-world value increasing slightly.

While optimism among our industry experts fell to its lowest point since the start of the pandemic, most label the current situation as a “flat market.” They are seeing a “modest, sensible contraction” of the market with many vehicles selling, just at lower values than we have seen in recent years.

Our next monthly Hagerty Market Rating update will fall shortly after the one-lot auction of a 1962 Ferrari 300 LM / 250 GTO (s/n 3765) held during Sotheby’s week of New York Modern and Contemporary Art auctions in November. This car was initially raced by Scuderia Ferrari until it was sold by the factory in 1967 for $8000. If it sells next month, expect the final price to be at least 5000 times higher (over $40,000,000), which will likely have an impact on how our industry experts view the market.

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