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Did the Collector-Car Market Crash Last Summer?
A version of this story first appeared in the November/December 2024 issue of Hagerty Drivers Club magazine. Join the club to receive our award-winning magazine and enjoy insider access to automotive events, discounts, roadside assistance, and more.
If you think the financial fates of one-of-none cars selling at auction don’t mean much to you, you’re probably right.
That said, the auctions that accompanied the 2024 Monterey Car Week did mark a shift that is emblematic of this year’s market at large, and we all should take note.
Overall sales totals across the glitzy August auctions amounted to $392M, down for the second consecutive year, and well below 2022’s pandemic-juiced $471M tally. This year’s gross figure was only 3 percent below 2023, but masked in these numbers is that those results were hard-won. Restrained buyers shrewdly advanced bids by minuscule amounts, cars spent longer on the block, and auction houses had to relentlessly and repeatedly pressure sellers to lower reserves—many did and opted to let cars go for hundreds of thousands of dollars less than expected. This was true even for the “Enzo-era” Ferraris that historically rule at Monterey. Only 53 percent of the pre-1974 Ferraris on offer this year sold.
As always, there were bright spots and exceptions to the trends. Modern classics as a whole tended to perform well, headlined by a 1997 Porsche 911 GT1 Rennversion that auction house Broad Arrow sold for $7.045M. Mecum’s Hemi Daytona, represented as the highest optioned example in existence and a peak expression of 1960s muscle, rode a bidding war to an astonishing $3.36M sale—a full $2M more than its previous sale price from two years earlier.
Yet the overall, unmistakable takeaway was that buyers were being cautious. Numerous explanations exist as to why: The election year had people jittery. Interest rates are high, which makes it more expensive to borrow money and, just as important at this price level, results in fewer of the sort of liquidity events—initial public offerings, mergers, acquisitions, etc.—wherein someone might walk away with seven figures worth of pocket change. Those same high interest rates mean classic cars and other collectibles are a less attractive place to park cash compared with low-risk investments. There’s also the widespread recognition that the collector car market has moved past its 2022 peak.
All of this doesn’t—and shouldn’t—impact the average car collector. If you’re worried about how the annual return on a 1967 Camaro RS/SS compares with a high-yield CD, you’re reading the wrong site. Yet there are important lessons from Monterey that we should all keep in mind as we buy and sell today. Specifically, this is a great reminder that the collector car market, like any other market, is cyclical. The long-term trend is up and to the right, but there are periods of growth and correction. We happen to be witnessing an inevitable adjustment following an unprecedented market run-up. Even before summer auctions, Hagerty’s Market Rating, a holistic measure that takes into account both auction and private sales, had been sliding well below its June 2022 peak. If you’re looking to buy, this is great news—cars that had swung out of your budget in the past few years might be within reach once more. And if you’re selling? Prepare to be patient and realistic.
Second, this year’s auction results are a clear indication that the market isn’t monolithic. Some segments will buck the overall trend and see prices surge even while the overall market stumbles and stalls. Don’t bend your tastes to the flavor of the month, but do keep current on the market conditions for the cars that speak to you.
Last and most important, the auctions provide a useful warning against those who see profit, rather than enjoyment, as the main motivation for buying an old car. The run-up of the past few years has caught the attention of speculators at all price levels. A reset, like what we saw in Monterey this year, should discourage those types, which is good for those of us who are mainly looking to buy the cars they love.
Judging by the unscientific measure of enthusiasm and attendance at this year’s Monterey Car Week, there are more of those people out there than ever. A range of ages, languages, and interests was apparent throughout the week, and a growing number of events are drawing a bigger audience. The more people who come to bear witness, the more people who will support and evangelize the importance of car culture.
Vintage cars may see their values dim for a time, but the thrill of driving them hasn’t changed one bit.
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Good news for a classic car enthusiast like myself. I really want to buy a classic Yugo or a Geo Metro, but i was afraid i would have to pay over 100k for a good one.
Metro made 3 cylinders cool way before the GR Corolla
Every year can’t be a gain, and 2022 was an oddball in terms of growth.
it is about time the market collapsed! It is probably because there are very few junk yards anymore. Parts are hard to get and prices are way too high to make car collection a fun pastime. Flippers really irritate me.
When you take, what can be for many an expensive hobby of enjoying a “classic” car into the world of greed it turns into big business. It started in the nineties when work done by a decent “body shop” that consisted of some rust repair, dent removal and a decent paint job became a “RESTORATION”. That word alone increased the work mentioned above 10 FOLD.
The Ferrari, Lamborghini and such marques were and always will be in another world of value but please, 90% of MASS produced Porsche’s need to be brought back into reality. Too many “brokers/dealers are scooping them up from “new” and sitting on them plus Porsche itself keeps making 23 variations of the same 911 and calls them EXCLUSIVE for one reason or another.
…………..in other good news, Porsche’s China market is taking a huge hit, 30% of the Porsche dealers there will be folding.
Yes the Flippers, like Fast and Loud? oops, well every year there were more then 1 Million made eround the World where did the all go ,junk yards did not all send them to Korea, or China for melting ??
Check all the Farms in North America and I bet you would be surprised what you find !Get some Cash Cowboys on the road.?
Cheers, and Happy 2025
As the article said — “Last and most important, the auctions provide a useful warning against those who see profit, rather than enjoyment, as the main motivation for buying an old car.”— Bottom line is human nature has not changed and many tend to want to jump on the appreciation of anything trying to profit. Others will spend money for a vehicle they want and not expect to profit. The “economy” always inflates and deflates, yet trying to “time it” is more luck than skill. That said there are so many changes happening now that probably won’t be positive for the old car hobby. Yet it will survive, possibly diminished. Nobody thought “rest-mods” would have value, yet they do now. Nobody thinks EV conversions will work – time will tell.