Scoring Our 2024 Market Predictions

With the clock winding down on 2024, we can now score the predictions we made 12 months ago. While our 2023 predictions were right 71 percent of the time, it turns out that this year’s cooling market was harder to navigate than expected. Did we beat our prior score? Definitely not. Look at our ’24 predictions—and how right or wrong we were—below.

1. The number of $10M+ cars offered at auction will continue to rise. No points. Eight cars were bid above $10M in 2023, and the same number were bid above that level in 2024. While the January and March auctions of 2024 appeared to be flush with valuable cars (similar to the outlook for 2025), we didn’t anticipate the Monterey doldrums.

2. A McLaren will sell for more than $25M. Close! No points, though. One did sell, but it was through a private auction with no published price. See our thoughts on the growing trend of private auctions here.

3. The 1963–67 Chevrolet Corvette will retake its crown as the top seller from the 2013–19 Porsche 911 (991). One point! Finally, we’re on the board. This prediction referred to total sales in dollar value for a single vehicle generation. Much as we predicted a year ago, the Porsche 991’s successor—the 992—got more attention in the market, and the 991 faded into second place. Sales in North America of the C2 Corvette increased by 15 percent to $82.9M, while sales of the 991 (including 2020 MY cross-over 991s) dropped 14 percent to $73.7M. This was partly due to fewer 991s selling while more Corvettes sold, but the average price of the modern car dropped, and it increased for the vintage one.

4. The Hagerty Market Rating will drop below 55. No points. The rating never dropped below 60, which shows the market is resilient despite headwinds. The rating measures activity or “heat” in the market, and a rating above 60 means it is still growing rather than flat. The leveling off of the rating is because the downward trends in the average and median Hagerty Price Guide values are offset by an increasing number of cars selling at auction, albeit at a lower value. Further, private market activity remains flat, and expert sentiment remains good.

5. Auction total sales will exceed $3.6B. One point. Total sales in North America will likely just barely reach $3.6B by the end of the year. See prediction number 2 for why the total wasn’t higher.

6. A Subaru/Mitsubishi of the 2000s will sell for more than $100,000. One point! Earlier in December, a 2006 Mitsubishi Lancer Evolution IX MR with fewer than 500 miles sold for $168,500 after fees. The price was more than double its condition #1 (“concours”) value of $70,400.

7. GT endurance cars from the 1990s and 2000s will sell for record amounts. No points. A 1997 Porsche 911 GT1 sold for $7.05M, but I explicitly excluded GT1-category cars in out prediction. Hagerty Price Guide values for the 993 GT2 road car continued ever higher in 2024, but there were no record sales at an auction.

8. An EV conversion will sell for more than $200K. No points, again. The January auctions looked promising, but the 1966 Pontiac GTO convertible EV conversion at Barrett-Jackson’s Scottsdale auction, which sold for $143,000, was the category’s high sale this year.

9. A kid’s car will sell for more than $100K. No points here, either. While Bugatti has a history of making cars for kiddos, first with the Type 52 and now with the Baby II, neither sold for more than $100K this year. A Type 52 has sold for more in the past, but perhaps the market for them has grown up.

What’s the tally on the nine predictions for 2024? Only three points! Half as good as our 2023 predictions. Hopefully, by starting from such a low score, our 2025 predictions will look better.