3 Up, 3 Down: Do These Muscle Cars Point to an Emerging Trend?
Among the many segments in the collector car hobby, muscle cars are one of the most solidly established. Their market is more mature than the emerging collector SUV and Japanese segments, and demand remains broad and deep, in contrast to the more limited audience for cars from the ’50s and earlier. Lately, however, the trend for these cars as a group is also one of the hardest to pin down.
The Hagerty Muscle Car Index, a stock-market-style grouping of cars that represent a broad spectrum of the segment, is down 5 percent in the last quarter, and 8 percent over the last year. That said, 2024 has still featured standout muscle car sales, like this ’70 Plymouth Hemi ‘Cuda and this ’70 Oldsmobile 4-4-2 W30. As a result of these somewhat mixed messages, Hagerty Price Guide editor Greg Ingold has characterized the muscle market as “softening but nuanced.”
One theme we are seeing lately is top-line cars—like the Plymouth Superbird we highlighted in a recent Price Guide update—slipping while some less powerful, less ostentatious, or less mainstream models are seeing a slight uptick. To wit, here are a few examples of muscle car values that show some bright spots in the middle of the muscle car market as well as some of the recent weaknesses at the pointy end.
1968-69 Mercury Cyclone: +15 percent
Starting out in 1964 as a trim level on Mercury’s Comet, the Cyclone became its own, more luxurious take on the muscle car in 1968. The model offered a range of solid-performing engines and handsome, sporty looks, but never took off in an era where wild exterior visuals were beginning to match the increasing power under Detroit’s hoods. While not as rare as some of the other cars on this list, the entire run of ’68-69 Cyclones didn’t cross 23,000 units, so if you’ve got one or are thinking about picking up this upscale muscle alternative, it’s a near lock that you’ll be the only Cyclone at the next local car show.
The Cyclone and its close relative, the Ford Fairlane (below), are the two on this list with the broadest spread of options and drivetrains, so there’s a fair amount of variance in terms of value and percentage of increase within each of these two models (the percentage increase in the heading is for the model overall). For instance, a #2 (“excellent”) condition ’69 Cyclone Spoiler II with its burly 428 Cobra Jet is up 26 percent to $89K, while a ’69 Cyclone GT with a 302-cubic inch V-8 in the same condition is up a still-significant 16 percent to $28,500. Our valuation team does not always note increases across the board within a specific model—sometimes in a slow market, a top configuration will move while lesser versions hold steady—so this market behavior bodes well for the Cyclone.
1971-74 AMC Javelin AMX: +10 percent
Though the AMX started life as a two-seater, AMC pivoted for 1971 and made AMX the top trim level at in the Javelin lineup. A spruced-up interior, revised fiberglass hood, and spoilers front and rear visually distinguished the AMX from the rest of the Javelin trims, while between the fenders sat a 285-horse 360-cubic inch V-8 or a 330-hp 401-cubic inch V-8. Even if it wasn’t the most powerful car out there, the Javelin/AMX was stylish if slightly offbeat competition for the Big Three’s pony cars, and it proved to have a healthy following.
We picked the original ’68-70 AMX for our 2023 Bull Market List, and since then values of that generation are up just shy of 5 percent. The AMX-trim Javelins of ’71-74, however, are up a more impressive 10 percent. The good news is that even #2 (“excellent”) condition 360-powered cars come in at $36,600, and driver-quality cars can be had for about $20K. Budget a few grand more for the larger engine.
1966-67 Ford Fairlane: +8 percent
As with most mid-sized cars of the era, you could get your fifth-generation Ford Fairlane in decidedly non-muscular station wagon and sedan form (though you could get some powerful engines in those body styles). For the purposes of this exercise, though, we’re only considering the two-door models. Still, there was plenty of variety in both trim and engine—from mild 289 V-8 to the much wilder (and rarer) dual-quad-equipped 427. What’s more, in contrast to the Mercury Cyclone, Fairlanes were produced in healthy numbers.
Values for the more muscle-oriented Fairlanes are up 8 percent overall in the latest edition of the Hagerty Price Guide. A 320-horse 390-cubic inch ’67 Fairlane 500 convertible tips the scales at $30,900 in #2 (“excellent”) condition, a 10.4 percent increase. Up 16 percent (to $35K) is the ’66 Fairlane 500XL coupe with the 265-horse 390. Meanwhile, the crown jewel of the model, the 427-powered ’66 Fairlane 500, is up 16.4 percent in the same condition, and is valued at $255K. Prior to this past quarter’s strong performance, Fairlanes were increasing slightly through 2023’s slowing market. If there’s a poster child for a solid ’60s muscle cruiser that’s not flashy but gets the job done, the Fairlane might be it—and it seems the market’s taken notice.
1969 Chevrolet Chevelle COPO: -13 percent
In 1969, GM’s corporate edict keeping engines larger than 400 cubic inches out of any car that wasn’t either full-sized or named Corvette was still very much in effect. Creative minds find solutions, however, and the Central Office Production Order (COPO)—a program designed to enable the special order of specific option combinations for police, municipal, and other fleet use—got leveraged to bring big power to a few savvy people. That year, 323 Chevelles were ordered with the 425-horse L72 427-cubic inch engine through COPO. Don Yenko’s S/C conversions were the most famous Chevelles to go through this process—99 were made—though Berger Chevrolet in Michigan also utilized the COPO side door. The remainder trickled out to other dealers across the U.S. and Canada.
Despite the fact that these Chevelles are among the most rare and sought-after Chevy muscle cars, our valuation team has observed a downward trend in prices. Across all conditions, non-Yenko COPO Chevelle values are down 13 percent. Yenko S/C Chevelles have performed a little better, losing 10 percent over the last quarter. That doesn’t mean any are cheap, however. A #2 (“excellent”) condition COPO Chevelle is still valued at $156K (a Yenko in the same condition will garner $165K), and either car in #4 (Fair) condition will still command six figures.
1967-69 Camaro SS: -8 percent
From the factory, a set of SS badges on a first-gen Camaro meant at least a 350-cubic inch V-8 under the hood. Buyers who wanted more grunt could option a big-block 396 with up to 375 horses. If you pulled up to a stoplight next to a Camaro SS, it helped to scope out the front fender to see what flavor V-8 you were up against. That said, plenty of savvy owners subbed out the chrome “396” for a more modest 350 badge to fool would-be opponents.
Today, regardless of the horsepower count, first-generation Camaro Super Sports of all stripes are down a significant eight percent as a whole. Of course, this translates to different values across the spectrum—For instance, a 300-horse ’69 L48 350-powered Camaro SS in #2 (“excellent”) condition is now valued at a little more than 61 grand, and $127,000 will fetch a ’68 SS convertible with the 375-hp 396 in the same condition. While these Camaros aren’t top-dog Chevys like the COPO Chevelles, they are coveted A-list cars from the muscle era, and our valuation team takes notice when their values move.
1968 Shelby GT500 KR: -4 percent
It’s not the most pricey Shelby Mustang (that honor goes to the ’65 GT350R) and it isn’t set up to be as nimble as other Shelby creations, but the ’68 Shelby GT500 KR has a lot going for it. 428 Cobra Jet Power, the Shelby name, and some seriously good looks have put the GT500 KR at the top of the list for many a Mustang fan. After a stable 2023, prices are down 4 percent for convertibles (to $204K for a #2 example) and 3.7 percent (to $155K) for fastbacks in the first quarter of 2024. Though Ford muscle has generally trended positive over this period, this particular Blue Oval tracks the broader segment’s recent cooling.
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The subtley of inflation is that it eats into one’s buying power, and nowhere has the American public been deceived more matter of factly than with this oval office interloper. In July 2022 inflation was at 8.5% and we’re still in nothing less than 5%. Smaller packages, bigger prices, and you know it. Jobs have seldom met expectations, but the “economy is wonderful”, say the propagandists. Interest rates have been ast a 23 year high since 2022, and what do you get at your bank for savings, money market? And what about the usurious rates on credit cards? By every metric, Bidenomics has miserably failed Americans; prices are now up an average 20% over Inauguration Day 2021.
I disagree and see you also deceived, but politics aren’t for here, and my response might appear that way like yours does as inflation was better in 2016 than 2020.
Thank You for saying Politics is not for this topic. Money talks. How fast do you want to go? $$$
Don’t throw political bombs. They may start landing in your backyard. This forum is one of the few places I go to escape politics.
Exactly 100% there’s usually one that has to drag politics into every facet of our lives….cars is usually one place were supposed to escape from that.
This isn’t Facebook. We talk cars, not politics.
True that !!!!
like your statement lets not talk politics here. keep it in its place !
And this has what to do with the collector car market, exactly? Take your political commentary to a more appropriate forum.
And don’t forget the longest stretch of unemployment below 4% in 50 years, and the best stock market returns in decades.
and I’m seeing the benefits of that.
Oh ya, the SandP is up higher than ever but that’s only because the money is more worthless due to all the printing.
It just a big house of cards. Collect nice things like automobiles 😄
Inflation is a problem all over the world, not just in the U,S. Boy, Biden sure is powerful if he can do that. (In fact, it’s lower in the US than most of the industrial world. ) Facts are a b****, eh?
right on! And ZI’ll keep right on “posting too fast.”
Well said.
Inflation just came in at 3.4% and looks to be lower by the end of the year. Biden cleaned up the mess while creating stellar job and growth numbers. Added bonus is that he’s not a traitor.
Sure inflation is 3.4%… like it or not, politics effects the car market.
Biden Definitely Has a Good Eye when it comes to C2 Corvettes With Both Balance and Power. ‘1967 L79, ‘327/350 H.P. CAR & DRIVER Magazine ‘1965 L79 (ROAD TEST) ”Best Vette Yet”.
You are not deceived. You speak the truth. If you can’t see the problem, you are part of the problem.
Actually, the economy is booming. Jobs are plentiful, everyone who wants a job has one, and everyone who wants a better job can find one. Inflation is at 3.4%, the lowest rate in the world. The pandemic was worldwide, but was exacerbated by the incompetence and corruption of the Drumpf administration. Thankfully, under Biden, the nation has recovered with the stock market at record highs and wages finally going up despite the RepubliKKKans’ best efforts.
Sounds like a trumpet or a Trunper
What about cars??
The infection has gotten in to Hagerty.
UCK!
?????
No it not, it going in right direction, be brave, use the brain
Agree; and what’s new about inflation? We had a century of it to ‘warm us up’, after all! Minimum wage — when I got my work permit and drivers license in 1961 was $1.25, after all — and a new compact car under $2000. C’mon, guys!
To me, the problem with all of the above is the fact that we are talking rare cars. 323 Chevells, AMC, Shelby KR’s etc. The only real cars are the Camaros. So many people (dealers ) in the late 60,s were cranking out 427’s etc. but still in small numbers like the KR Shelby’s. These cars have always been expensive and a drop of 10% is no big deal. They float all the time and always have. Remember when 426 Hemi’s were 500,000 and up? The small numbers of these cars are not affected by interest rates,that is like saying million dollar houses are affected by interest rates. Most of these are paid for in cash.
Forget it all. Buy what you like and can afford and be happy you have it. To many wish and wind up with nothing!
Lets state things simply — there is a limited buyers pool for expensive cars and the broader pool of buyers with less money to spend is looking at more affordable alternatives. Agree with Rifon14, by most measures the economy is doing good, BUT one exception is wages have not kept up FOR DECADES. The economy is fine, the problem is a lowering standard of living. Decades ago I drove past a GM manufacturing plant and noticed the large number of IMPORT cars in the employee parking lot. Basically well paid workers putting themselves out of work. Yes that plant is closed now!!!! Most of the children of those workers are in low paying jobs! They won’t be buying expensive muscle cars. Yes I’m a boomer and go look at our wealth stats. When we are gone I wonder who will buy these muscle cars.
i’m currently driving a 1976 camaro LT 350 CI built to 360HP bought it in 1980 my son put 5k into the engine in 2004 then my gtandson wrecked it twice. I got interested in 2022 in restoring so I had it shipped to arizona where i winter and finished the restoration. The second time he wrecked it the frame was bent. It has a saginaw 4 speed with a hurst shifter. Demon Carb which I just had rebuilt (ended up the best bang for the buck)
I respectfully ask that the administrator for this site either delete the ability to post comments or to restrict comments relating to politics. I thought this site was where you went to find information on vintage automobiles – not to act out on your political views or grievances. Enough already!
Correct. A lot of people living in fairy land. Worst economy in at least 4+ decades going from recession into depression. Past 3.5 years 89% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck. Some of my good friends have big money and buy what they want. I was just at Barrett Jackson on Bidder Stage and cars did not go for nearly what they had in past years. Most down 30%+.
at 100 years old, I drive a 66 F-85 cutlas in the summer. the expensive hopped up cars don’t excite me. I do enjoy reading about other folk’s ideas
Hooray, my 69 Cyclone CJ is up in value!
1970/71 Mercury Cyclone. My favorite! You either love them or hate them. Just try to buy one reasonably priced.
AJ, I thought the spoiler looked pretty cool. A friend has an upside down one on the back of his ‘68 Nova and it too looks pretty cool. Spoilers say, “Hot Rod”.
Cash value? Up market; down market? Is that all there is? Doesn’t anyone buy cars any more for what they have a passion for? I own a couple vehicles that no one might give a flyin’ flounder for. But for me, I own and drive them to put a smile on my face. Am I missing something? Or are you.
Sarcasm, I presume?