As Driving Season Begins, the Hagerty Market Rating Drops

The Hagerty Market Rating measures the current status of the collector car market in terms of activity or “heat,” directional momentum, and the underlying strength of the market. It is expressed as a closed 0-100 number with a corresponding open-ended index (like the DJIA or NASDAQ Composite). To learn more about how we calculate the Hagerty Market Rating, read here.

After a slight bump two months ago, the Hagerty Market Rating continues its slow descent. It’s current rating of 65.01 is the lowest its been in three years. That said, it is still 6 points higher than the floor it reached shortly after the COVID shutdowns in early 2020.

The Hagerty Market Index, an open-ended stock market-style index of the Market Rating, has dropped for 17 consecutive months. This is the longest unbroken losing streak in the Index’s history and also the steepest decline—dropping nearly 24 points in that time.

Several factors continue to influence the Hagerty Market Rating’s downward trend. Chief among them are the notable declines in sale prices at auction. The Auction Median Price metric dropped another 2 points this month down to 35.86—the lowest this metric has been since it was added to the Market Rating calculation in 2011. While the real numbers behind this metric are dropping, inflation continues to make the situation worse. The current actual median sale price at auctions is $29,400, a significant drop from its peak of $34,560 in November 2022 and the lowest value since the fall of 2020. Accounting for inflation, however, the current auction median sale price is the lowest in Market Rating history.

Softness in sale price isn’t isolated to auctions, as cars trading hands privately are also seeing less cash on the table. The ratio of cars selling above insured value on the private market has dropped to 42.6%, its lowest point in over two years. That said, it is still higher than any point prior November 2021.

Only one individual metric increased this month. Following a 14-month decline, the ratio of insured value increases-to-decreases for cars valued under $250,000 is on a four-month winning streak. This ratio for high-end vehicles, meanwhile, has dropped 18 of the last 19 months to its lowest value in nearly three years. That said, both of these ratios are in the black by a wide margin. For every call Hagerty gets to lower the insured value of a broad market (sub-$250K) vehicle, we get more than eight calls to increase values. For high-end vehicles, this ratio is 2.5 calls to raise for every one call to lower.

As driving season begins, large auction events will slow down a bit and changes in the market rating will slow. Based on its recent trajectory, it’s very likely the market rating to continue to fall, gradually, through the summer.

***

Check out the Hagerty Media homepage so you don’t miss a single story, or better yet, bookmark it. To get our best stories delivered right to your inbox, subscribe to our newsletters.