Our Two Cents: The Car Industry’s Worst Predictions
My last boss in the corporate world had a great phrase he used to weasel out of potentially ridiculous plans, saving our department countless hours of pointless work and meaningless deliverables. It went something like this: “I have [insert concerns here] mostly because I lost my crystal ball years ago.”
Planning for the future is paramount in an industry with as many parts as the car business. But sometimes crystal balls should be lost, because we’ve all been affected by ridiculous predictions. So here’s the question posed to our team, in the latest episode of Our Two Cents: What are some of the worst industry predictions that influenced cars/buying habits but proved to be dead wrong? I think you’ll enjoy the answers.
The “Last” American Convertible
The debacle surrounding the 1976 Cadillac Eldorado convertible has always fascinated me. Buyers flocked to dealers for “the last of the convertibles” in a hype-fueled fervor that spun up faster than the rational mind could realize that, as easily as the company had written the decree, it could reverse that decree. Customers were buying investments based on the promise that the profit-driven company would not reverse its word, should such a reversal make financial sense.
It seems hard to believe that convertibles would actually go away, especially when the push for such a movement came from inside the house. — Kyle Smith
EVs Will Be the End of ICE
Most recently, the obvious example of wrong predictions is that everyone would rush to buy EVs. After the initial wave of early adopters, the great middle masses of car buyers are putting the brakes on that movement, and have voted with their dollars for hybrids instead.
That could easily change over time, but for now automakers like GM are having to scramble to provide the vehicle configurations that consumers actually want to buy, rather than those that regulators in Washington, D.C., want to decree that they buy. (And, for the record, I say this as an avowed liberal on most fronts.) — Joe DeMatio
Car Phones
I’ll get real niche: In-car phones. The misstep was in assuming that something that had existed on its own (the telephone) would somehow be made better when tethered to another piece of technology.
Maybe this is revisionist history with the added benefit of hindsight, but someone should have known that telephones would advance and innovate just like home computers. It feels like someone should have seen the leap from hard-wired phones to wireless phones coming far enough in advance to curtail the waste of time and money trying to stuff the phone into a car. Readers, feel free to filet me for this one in the comments. — Nathan Petroelje
That Ain’t Happening in 1976
For the given 20-year timeline of 1956–76, everything about the predictions in this video from GM are terrible. — Stefan Lombard
OPEC Will Kill The V-8
I remember reading back issues of car magazines from the 1970s and 1980s that suggested oil prices would remain high enough to lower demand for V-8 engines to the point of unprofitability, and eventual extinction. The threat was real; even the small-block Chevy and Ford engines were downsized to save the V-8. But by the late 1980s, the small-block V-8 came back just as strong as pre-OPEC times, and options like the Turbocharged Ford 2.3 died rather quickly. (Perhaps OPEC did put a nail in the big-block’s coffin?)
These days the V-8 might actually be dying, as it is gone from Chrysler Stellantis’ shelves, the Camaro is dead, and 1000+ horsepower EVs are the de facto kings of torque. The new Mustang still has a V-8 and loyalists abound (even in V-8-hungry India), so perhaps the pony car can turn into an American alternative to the likes of BMWs and Porsches. It looks like that pivot is happening, and might save the V-8 from total extinction. Fingers crossed. — Sajeev Mehta
Physical Buttons Are History
For me, it’s the assumption that everyone wants a smartphone experience in their car. Yes, it’s cheaper for automakers to install touchscreens than it is to make physical buttons, but focus groups also suggested customers wanted this type of technology. Turns out, they did not.
Physical buttons are easier to manipulate while the car is in motion, without looking, and a number of tests (including this one from Sweden) demonstrate that they’re safer. If you’ve ever tried to change the climate control in a VW ID.4 using the haptic slider while on a pockmarked Southfield Freeway in Metro Detroit, with cars 4 inches away from you in either lane, you realize how asinine this crap is.
Voice control is a neat trick, but it’s slow, annoying, and never works when a toddler is crying in the background. They want to hear Frozen‘s “Let it Go” and absolutely not “Love is an Open Door,” and that the song should be changed IMMEDIATELY. When that happens, you can’t get them to quiet down enough to say “Hey Mercedes, play _____.” — Eric Weiner
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Did she say the hotel has “predigested food cooked in by infrared “? Holy salmonella!
They got things right like the flat screen infotainment center on the dash but fascinatingly the entire concept of a guy in a tower helping people to travel is completely erased with GPS, Waze and a smartphone. Oh and they kind of got the HOV lane thing right.
I learned how to get from A to B in a Phantom II at 200 feet, 420 kts with a paper chart. I will take paper any day
GPS? Sputnik wasn’t launched until a year later.
Worst prediction so far: Americans will all race out and buy electric cars and in-line six cylinders.
And they’ll willingly pay $90,000 for the junk.
Nope.
So my 61 year old car does not have power brakes, does not have power steering, does not have a single microchip anywhere and no emissions control. It does have roll up windows, a push button radio, drum brakes, a third pedal and a six volt battery. I will admit that the radio has transistors, no vacuum tubes. Early last year, at a car show, I was offered $ 150,000.00 for it. Later in the year, I was told by another person that I should just name my price and they would meet it. No haggling, they just wanted it at any price. It is not a rare car. I’m sure the complete lack of any technology is part of the desirability. The complementing part to that is absolute simplicity. Seventy four HP is certainly not a selling point. The brand, Porsche, has created snob appeal, which helps. I think the lack of technology is a positive selling point along with simplicity and brand identity. I despise my wife’s car with a touchscreen radio, A/C, heat and maintenance minder which tells me what I should all ready know. I guess the AI has determined that I’m stupid.
I love my 356 for the very same reasons. And yes, I’m natural stupid and proud of it.
I totally agree with knobs v info screen as safer. Plus, anyone else think the current iteration–sticking up out of the dash and blocking your view–is the absolute ugliest solution? As if it was an afterthought or worse, aftermarket. In my 2015 the screen is small and built into the dash/console array surrounded by plenty of knobs. And a CD player. I dread the day when decent used 2015s are scarce.
Employe vs. Employee. That brings back memories. My mom was a GM executive secretary decades ago. I remember her commenting about that on more than one occasion (or is it ocasion)?
It seems the Chevrolet Corvair would have fit in this group.
It’s not that US manufacturers guessed wrong. It’s that they failed to make an affordable EV profitably. (And junky DC fast charging doesn’t help)
So much of the problem with EVs in the US is that we have long distances to cover and few affordable EV options. The OEMs haven’t figured out how to make cheap, long range EVs profitably.
China’s on it though. We’re likely to have $20k Chinese EVs in less than 5 years. Higher-end Volvo and Lotus cars are already Chinese with the Lotus Eletre being engineered and built in China.
Cheaper cars are the majority of the market. China is poised to take it. US OEMs better get it together soon or they’re in big trouble!
EV’S are irrelevant without the charging capability and range needed for America. Clean internal combustion fuel is what is in the USA future. Wind, solar are fun ideas but electricity will come from nuclear. Off shore wind farms are about as dumb an idea as there is but perhaps someone will trump that with another idiot idea. Maybe squirrels on a tread mill?
Part of the problem in modern society is stating those opinions will get you banned from “polite society” and called names..denier, luddite, hater.
The people who claim to know what we need have spoken, better get onboard. No dissent is allowed.
Mayor Petey says everybody better get on board. He got a plug in hybrid. Where is his electric car? A year from now he will be CNN’s new conservative idea basher.
seems like you guys are doing a lot of name-calling yourselves.
Click Bait nonsense Hagerty you can do better
When will people learn…if the government says it’s a good idea, it’s probably not.
Probably?
I love the comments about focus group research. GM ‘s focus groups said the Pontiac Aztec was a neat idea. Let’s see. let’s get a bunch of people who aren’t working and offer them a free lunch for giving their opinions.
They certainly aren’t going to offend their hosts by telling them this is a stupid idea. You might not get to come again for another lunch.
I think a model A with a fuel injected 4 cylinder ,disc brakes and newish wheels n tires might be a nice ride. those nice spring steel bumpers work great,when you hit a tree or another car etc at 50 mph. the car just bounces backwards at 50 mph and no one gets hurt, car or man. you learn quickly. 40 miles per gallon.
As a dyed in the wool VW bus fan I’ve always been annoyed that Iaccoca claimed to have invented the minivan. WHAT??? I’m still driving a VW van, that and my 911.
My 1982 Porsche 928 with 8 glorious cylinders does 0-60 in 6.8 seconds. My 2021 Chevy Bolt does that same 0-60 in 6.5 seconds. Plus I can drive 30 miles in the Bolt for less than $1.40. Actually even less cause I put solar panels on my house. In 6 more years the panels will be paid off and I’ll be driving for free. Between my cycles, cars and snowmobiles I have over 40 ICE vehicles. While I love those vintage rides, for a daily driver nothing beats an EV. Come on over to the dark side, you might just love it.
Most ev’s would barely get me to work, much less home. Nowhere to charge it either. No thanks.
I agree on how unsafe it is to try and use a touchscreen or select from a plethora of buttons just to turn on the heat! I run a repair shop and test-drive a lot of rigs, and it drives me nuts to have to figure out how to switch from Vent to Floor heat! I can’t believe how hard it is sometimes to just see what the miles are! If I have to put on my glasses and get out the owner’s manual to figure out a simple function, it’s too much. I love my climate control dials; no visual contact needed!