Our Two Cents: The Car Industry’s Worst Predictions
My last boss in the corporate world had a great phrase he used to weasel out of potentially ridiculous plans, saving our department countless hours of pointless work and meaningless deliverables. It went something like this: “I have [insert concerns here] mostly because I lost my crystal ball years ago.”
Planning for the future is paramount in an industry with as many parts as the car business. But sometimes crystal balls should be lost, because we’ve all been affected by ridiculous predictions. So here’s the question posed to our team, in the latest episode of Our Two Cents: What are some of the worst industry predictions that influenced cars/buying habits but proved to be dead wrong? I think you’ll enjoy the answers.
The “Last” American Convertible
The debacle surrounding the 1976 Cadillac Eldorado convertible has always fascinated me. Buyers flocked to dealers for “the last of the convertibles” in a hype-fueled fervor that spun up faster than the rational mind could realize that, as easily as the company had written the decree, it could reverse that decree. Customers were buying investments based on the promise that the profit-driven company would not reverse its word, should such a reversal make financial sense.
It seems hard to believe that convertibles would actually go away, especially when the push for such a movement came from inside the house. — Kyle Smith
EVs Will Be the End of ICE
Most recently, the obvious example of wrong predictions is that everyone would rush to buy EVs. After the initial wave of early adopters, the great middle masses of car buyers are putting the brakes on that movement, and have voted with their dollars for hybrids instead.
That could easily change over time, but for now automakers like GM are having to scramble to provide the vehicle configurations that consumers actually want to buy, rather than those that regulators in Washington, D.C., want to decree that they buy. (And, for the record, I say this as an avowed liberal on most fronts.) — Joe DeMatio
Car Phones
I’ll get real niche: In-car phones. The misstep was in assuming that something that had existed on its own (the telephone) would somehow be made better when tethered to another piece of technology.
Maybe this is revisionist history with the added benefit of hindsight, but someone should have known that telephones would advance and innovate just like home computers. It feels like someone should have seen the leap from hard-wired phones to wireless phones coming far enough in advance to curtail the waste of time and money trying to stuff the phone into a car. Readers, feel free to filet me for this one in the comments. — Nathan Petroelje
That Ain’t Happening in 1976
For the given 20-year timeline of 1956–76, everything about the predictions in this video from GM are terrible. — Stefan Lombard
OPEC Will Kill The V-8
I remember reading back issues of car magazines from the 1970s and 1980s that suggested oil prices would remain high enough to lower demand for V-8 engines to the point of unprofitability, and eventual extinction. The threat was real; even the small-block Chevy and Ford engines were downsized to save the V-8. But by the late 1980s, the small-block V-8 came back just as strong as pre-OPEC times, and options like the Turbocharged Ford 2.3 died rather quickly. (Perhaps OPEC did put a nail in the big-block’s coffin?)
These days the V-8 might actually be dying, as it is gone from Chrysler Stellantis’ shelves, the Camaro is dead, and 1000+ horsepower EVs are the de facto kings of torque. The new Mustang still has a V-8 and loyalists abound (even in V-8-hungry India), so perhaps the pony car can turn into an American alternative to the likes of BMWs and Porsches. It looks like that pivot is happening, and might save the V-8 from total extinction. Fingers crossed. — Sajeev Mehta
Physical Buttons Are History
For me, it’s the assumption that everyone wants a smartphone experience in their car. Yes, it’s cheaper for automakers to install touchscreens than it is to make physical buttons, but focus groups also suggested customers wanted this type of technology. Turns out, they did not.
Physical buttons are easier to manipulate while the car is in motion, without looking, and a number of tests (including this one from Sweden) demonstrate that they’re safer. If you’ve ever tried to change the climate control in a VW ID.4 using the haptic slider while on a pockmarked Southfield Freeway in Metro Detroit, with cars 4 inches away from you in either lane, you realize how asinine this crap is.
Voice control is a neat trick, but it’s slow, annoying, and never works when a toddler is crying in the background. They want to hear Frozen‘s “Let it Go” and absolutely not “Love is an Open Door,” and that the song should be changed IMMEDIATELY. When that happens, you can’t get them to quiet down enough to say “Hey Mercedes, play _____.” — Eric Weiner
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To a degree some of this is coming true. The V8 may still be around but it is far from what it was the #1 power plant in use.
The next election may hold a lot of what the EV does to ICE.
I think the better fallacies were that higher emission will lead to the end of performance. The truth is the higher the compression and or boost the more efficent and engine gets. The side effect is more power. Today we have 4-6 cylinder engines that would eat the lunch of some of the larger V8s of the 60’s. Even the V8 of today is at levels never imagined.
Increased compression increases combustion efficiency, but also increases combustion chamber temps and, therefore, NOx emissions requiring exhaust gas recirculation (valve timing replaced old egr systems). Probably the greatest efficiency increase is due to computer-controlled fuel injection. In the ’70s we were told gas engines could never run at stoichiometrically balanced air/fuel mixtures. We have seen lean-burn direct injection engines due to that advancement.
Turbocharging has replaced displacement. Modern turbo cars are reliable. What’s funny is that Porsche will save the v8 with efuel. They brought back the v8 option for the cayenne s due to customer demand. V8s are still big in racing, and have no drawback compared to v6s, the v8 is actually in the sweet spot for motor configurations.
l like your 2nd and 3rd sentences.
So Studebaker was right in designing their V8 in the late ’40’s (introduced in late 1950 for the 1951 model year) to be able to take compression ratios up to 14:1! Just 70 years too soon!
We laugh at the car phone… until we look at the infotainment system, which does all the same things as the phone in my pocket. I have never understood the draw for these things.
I think it’s supposed to keep you from reaching into that pocket to get while you’re driving…I don’t understand why drivers of newer vehicles with that tethering tech are still hold a phone to their head while driving….
Car Phones had been around since the later 1960s, usually in the domains of doctors and such who could actually need them AND afford them. Well before cell phone technology was around AND portable cell phones.
Buick also got into the in-car factory installed cell phone options. In the later 1980s with a set-up similar to that pictured in the LIncoln print ad. In Rivieras and Reattas. One of our local Buick Club chapter members has BOTH of the prototype Reattas, which he sought and bought from their prior owners. Upscale options in upscale vehicles which the “Connected Executive” would buy.
In those times, nobody worried about “newer tech evolutions” which came several years later. With 4GLTE never considered, at that time. Even OnStar has updated their technologies along with cell phone technologies, to the extent that my 2005 LeSabre Limited (factory equipped with OnStar) is useless due to later upgrades.
Automatic pairing of personal cell phones to vehicles MUST be configured to work, by the owner. It can be turned off, too. How’d we ever exist without InfoTainment??? Used to say the same things about cupholders, in the 1980s. Lots of other things, too.
Who was it that promised us flying cars back in the ’50s and ’60s? Was it the auto industry or just some fanciful dreaming by some writers at Popular Mechanics, et al? I for one was champing at the bit for those things to hit the market about 1980! 😜
You’re right….It’s “Champing”, not “Chomping” like all the talking heads on TV, say. Now we have to work on “Incidences”.
Thank you for that… one of my pet peeves.
Horsey terminology in car journalism? Or Pac-Man? Who careth a farthing?
Ferrari’s stallion is not “romping,” either.
Not to mention “preventitive!”
The worst offender — “there’s”…
It’s a contraction: short for “there IS”. Is is singular.
Every time some six-figure-salaried dope says something like: “There’s lots of ways…” I curse.
A solution? Expand the contraction and see how that sounds. Or am I way too late?
Even Safari Dictionary has it wrong
Those Caddy Eldo’s were pretty big. You had to be careful not to drive over the “Medium Strip”.
Maybe if ya laid off the “adult beverages” it wouldn’t be a problem !
(Just kidding)
Wow ! The “Safari” dictionary. That almost squeaked past me. Had to cheat a little to decode. Ha.
Wow. This has got to be the first time I’ve seen anyone, other than my dad, know that it’s “champing”; other than horse enthusiasts, man of whom also say it wrong. I usually get corrected by someone who doesn’t know the right word. Maybe they’re “disorientated”.
Irregardless …
There’s no such word.
Grew up on a farm, our horse chomped on its bit.
Now if we could finally get rid of “keeping up with the Joneses.” What’s next? “Smithes”? “Brownses”?
Keeping up with the Kardashians. Then the apocalypse.
-Edsel, many layers to the failure but a costly bet nonetheless. The fault of “the brand ladder” trying to copy what GM was doing is part of it… but then Ford vs. MEL didn’t exactly have the clearest ladder either.
-minivans won’t sell… both Ford and GM had viable prototypes in the 70s
-put heavy emissions on cars and people will flock to smaller cars (nope, they just went to truck-based platforms that are still big and don’t have the same emissions criteria)
-there is no market for Sedans in Can/USA… Accords, Camrys, etc. are still selling just fine
-Those weird things the independents are making won’t sell (Scout & various Jeeps = SUV, Rambler, Lark, etc.)
-America will never accept a tiny German car (VW Beetle), which repeats with all the opportunities American companies had to “be the Subaru dealer, buy Toyota, take over ____ after the war, etc.”
“dead wrong?”
In most of these cases the predictions came true, some only partially or temporarily.
Others will come to pass.
Exactly , Turbos ruled the 80s & saved Chrysler from extinction, The SVO was my first new car . Cmon Hagerty resorting to click basit BS
People may want physical buttons and knobs but the car makers are going to continue to increase use of touch screens because they are cheap and they like to tout their ‘technology’. I hate all the ‘technology’. I want mechanical controls without all the ‘body control modules’.
We have a 2020 MB GLC300. Its a nice car but every time I get in, I wonder how nice would this car be without the crap voice system, the 64 color LED lights, real leather, a real dipstick, etc etc
Tech in new cars is the only reason I am still driving my 2007 Mercury Mountaineer. It has 120k miles on it and is in excellent condition. As I am now 74, I am starting to think that this may be my last car. If it got totaled tomorrow, I world just try and find a low mileage 10-year-old car.
Same here!! Still driving my 2007 Ford Ranger with just over 200K miles. 4-cylinder, 5-speed, no power windows, no power seat, no power door locks…. No interest in upgrading, when it dies, I’ll search for another low mileage, similar vintage Ranger!!
I’m with you. I would have liked to have a Ranger, but I will stick with my 200k km 2007 Volvo V-50, 5-speed. I can operate all of the audio, HVAC etc. without taking my eyes off the road. At 84+ it’s possibly my ultimate ride.
Indeed. I love the (lack of) tech in my 2002 Accord. And the five speed stick. I inherited it from my father ten years ago. With only 22,000 miles. It still only has 70k. I’ll be keeping it a while.
Yep. I don’t want tech just for the sake of tech. I would actually like less tech.
It seems to me that a lot of this “tech” is helping the drivers to remove themselves from driving the car. Pretty scary if you’re a motorcyclist!
Amen, brother, amen!! Too many idiots think they can multi-task behind the wheel, and have no need of watching the road, other traffic, pedestrians…..
I agree, actual instrument panels, push buttons and rocker switches, nothing to distract from the joy of the drive.
IMHO, infotainment systems are a major distraction and dangerous
OPEC won’t kill the V-8 but politics might. EVs might eventually be prominent but cars didn’t replace horses until they could be refueled properly with adequate roads and tires. I should have bought a ’76 Eldorado Convertible in the early 90’s for $6500 when I had the chance. I was voted down by spouse in a 1-1 vote.
Marriage is a compromise……..Yes dear, that’s a good idea…
Happy wife, happy life.
Or, divorce and a garage full of cars.
Hmmm…tough choice. ;<)
Where I live, a divorce resulting in the sale and division of, say, a $1.5 million dollar house ends with two people living in $750,000 condos and no garages at all…
Happy spouse, happy house
The auto replace the horse & buggy by 1910 , the first turnpike was built in 1946 , Eisenhower admin started the interstate system in the 50’s it takes time for infrastructure to catch up. Most people thing of a car as an appliance, so give them one. I was never a fan until I was a well driven tesla with 4 adults in it destroy all comers in an autocross coming within .003 of FTD held a purpose built race car. I don’t care what its powered by if its fast Im in.
Pennsylvania Turnpike would like a word.
Marketing vs engineering! Just because you can, doesn’t mean you should…. and then some politician or bureaucrat twists the market by outlawing or taxing what people want. Let the market decide…
Another case of getting it wrong was when British Leyland Motor Corp managers declared, in 1969, that the hatchback had no future even though the Mini Clubman’s designers wanted it to be a hatchback.
Just take a look at the new “Mustang” EV. It’s a 4-door based on a truck platform and a hatchback more like a Tailgate. I expect the new Camaro will be an EV Truck based 4 door. Rumors are spreading of a Corvette SUV on the horizon. I guess I will have to bite the bullet after buying American cars for the last 50 years and buy a Toyota or a Hyundai so I can get a car, like I always wanted.
“Mustang EV” — MINO – Mustang in Name Only
Time to get the Lansing Grand River Assembly Plant back on-line for the Gen6 Camaro production. Obviously the demise of the Camaro is a big mistake with the current state of the EV market. If GM wants to go down the EV route how about a 4-door Lumina Crossover. NASCAR needs something for 2025. Leave the Camaro out of EV’s and NASCAR. Let’s ramp up production at Lansing Grand River. Put me down for a 2SS 1LE.
The rush to EVs was more the legacy automakers chasing the sky high share price of Tesla; those MBA CEOs get most of their compensation in stock options and they wanted some of that irrational market cap value in their pockets, business case be damned
The green electric car. Is it really green when one has to mine 600,000 lbs of earth to make one set of batteries for one car. Please also keep in mind there are 1.4 billion cars in the world to replace. That is a lot of mining. In addition once it is hooked to the grid it increases electric demand and since the plants being taken off line are coal fired then increased demand for electricity keep theses plants on line. Therefore an electric car is really a coal fired car which creates more mining for its fuel. Only the government could subsidize an idea like this.
AMEN! FINALLY the truth!
Second that!
Electric is NOT the future. Low carbon or carbonless hydrogen fuels are the future with internal combustion
The Hydrogen powered car bring back memories of the Hindenburg blimp. They already can’t put out the fire when an EV crashes.
lol
It didnt help that the skin of the Hindenburg was coated with solid rocket fuel
From what I understand the USA had helium but would not supply it to the Germans
There is a lot of natural gas used in commercial-scale hydrogen fuel production at this time, if we are thinking about complete system alternatives to ICE’s.
Obvious to most people – except those with some sort of vested interest.
Amen brother.
Finally some HONEST factoids . The World Order of Lemmings will never understand what’s driving this religion. Mo Money-Mo Power.
Please run for President…
You have my vote!
Freeway interchanges in Monument Valley, family musicals in cars, autopilot, vehicle fuel capacity of over 600 miles, cigars with sodas and ice cream, and only a couple of vehicles per mile of road. Who wouldn’t want that! But most of all, I want to be a vocally talented Mr. Tower Man, stationed in a desolate, solitary workplace with the swankiest of uniforms.
Love it!
+2,
But, I can travel 600 miles on a tank of fuel (42 gal) quite easily in my 2001 diesel crewcab (17-18mpg @ 75 mph)
My bladder, not so much.
My 1991 Suburban can cruise at 65 MPH, 17 mpg, and also have a range of about 600 miles (40-gallon tank). Only a real iron-bladder (like my wife) could even possibly do that. Me? 2 to 3 hours is plenty, thank you!
I can’t imagine sitting a car for 6 hours with a guy smoking a cigar. Like getting stuck in traffic behind a big rig.
My last new truck (2014 Freightliner Cascadia w/500 hp Cummins) burned cleaner than most cars. No smoke ever, even on a cold winter start.
The V8 is more of a vestige than something that is required in most applications. Sure they sound good good and deliver nice even power, but as for delivering lots of power that might be the case, but as delivered, in a car not a crate, a 4 cylinder sports car at a similar price point is going to have a respectable amount of power to a V8 car that is targeted at a similar market segment. Low end torque work vehicles are still where the V8 will continue to reign supreme, but on the street there is a lot of completion for it. Going from getting about 8 MPG to about 18 MPG didn’t hurt the V8 either.
And the industry/product planners are doing better NOW? These are mostly just modern-ish instances that the writer recalls; go back in history and discover the sixty — or six-hundred — mis-fires that they did! Still, we buy ’em — author also, I presume?
Filet #?: carphones are still with us, disguised as higher-tech cell phones, very slight functional difference. That’s all.
Many original mobile phones had large battery packs so tethering them to a vehicle’s electric system made more sense at the time.