Did the Collector-Car Market Crash Last Summer?

A version of this story first appeared in the November/December 2024 issue of Hagerty Drivers Club magazine. Join the club to receive our award-winning magazine and enjoy insider access to automotive events, discounts, roadside assistance, and more.

If you think the financial fates of one-of-none cars selling at auction don’t mean much to you, you’re probably right. 

That said, the auctions that accompanied the 2024 Monterey Car Week did mark a shift that is emblematic of this year’s market at large, and we all should take note.

Overall sales totals across the glitzy August auctions amounted to $392M, down for the second consecutive year, and well below 2022’s pandemic-juiced $471M tally. This year’s gross figure was only 3 percent below 2023, but masked in these numbers is that those results were hard-won. Restrained buyers shrewdly advanced bids by minuscule amounts, cars spent longer on the block, and auction houses had to relentlessly and repeatedly pressure sellers to lower reserves—many did and opted to let cars go for hundreds of thousands of dollars less than expected. This was true even for the “Enzo-era” Ferraris that historically rule at Monterey. Only 53 percent of the pre-1974 Ferraris on offer this year sold.

As always, there were bright spots and exceptions to the trends. Modern classics as a whole tended to perform well, headlined by a 1997 Porsche 911 GT1 Rennversion that auction house Broad Arrow sold for $7.045M. Mecum’s Hemi Daytona, represented as the highest optioned example in existence and a peak expression of 1960s muscle, rode a bidding war to an astonishing $3.36M sale—a full $2M more than its previous sale price from two years earlier. 

Yet the overall, unmistakable takeaway was that buyers were being cautious. Numerous explanations exist as to why: The election year had people jittery. Interest rates are high, which makes it more expensive to borrow money and, just as important at this price level, results in fewer of the sort of liquidity events—initial public offerings, mergers, acquisitions, etc.—wherein someone might walk away with seven figures worth of pocket change. Those same high interest rates mean classic cars and other collectibles are a less attractive place to park cash compared with low-risk investments. There’s also the widespread recognition that the collector car market has moved past its 2022 peak.

All of this doesn’t—and shouldn’t—impact the average car collector. If you’re worried about how the annual return on a 1967 Camaro RS/SS compares with a high-yield CD, you’re reading the wrong site. Yet there are important lessons from Monterey that we should all keep in mind as we buy and sell today. Specifically, this is a great reminder that the collector car market, like any other market, is cyclical. The long-term trend is up and to the right, but there are periods of growth and correction. We happen to be witnessing an inevitable adjustment following an unprecedented market run-up. Even before summer auctions, Hagerty’s Market Rating, a holistic measure that takes into account both auction and private sales, had been sliding well below its June 2022 peak. If you’re looking to buy, this is great news—cars that had swung out of your budget in the past few years might be within reach once more. And if you’re selling? Prepare to be patient and realistic. 

Second, this year’s auction results are a clear indication that the market isn’t monolithic. Some segments will buck the overall trend and see prices surge even while the overall market stumbles and stalls. Don’t bend your tastes to the flavor of the month, but do keep current on the market conditions for the cars that speak to you.

Last and most important, the auctions provide a useful warning against those who see profit, rather than enjoyment, as the main motivation for buying an old car. The run-up of the past few years has caught the attention of speculators at all price levels. A reset, like what we saw in Monterey this year, should discourage those types, which is good for those of us who are mainly looking to buy the cars they love.

Judging by the unscientific measure of enthusiasm and attendance at this year’s Monterey Car Week, there are more of those people out there than ever. A range of ages, languages, and interests was apparent throughout the week, and a growing number of events are drawing a bigger audience. The more people who come to bear witness, the more people who will support and evangelize the importance of car culture.

Vintage cars may see their values dim for a time, but the thrill of driving them hasn’t changed one bit.