Never Stop Driving #108: Meanwhile, over at Google
Although I’ve spent the last few months celebrating a renewed appreciation for the love of driving and the automotive industry’s support for road racing, autonomous vehicles are still a thing. Alphabet, the parent company of Google and YouTube, recently committed an additional $5 billion to Waymo, its autonomous taxi company.
Waymo’s slow and methodical growth curve seems to be well in the lead, especially in the U.S., where the company now offers robotaxis in four cities: San Francisco, Phoenix, Austin, and Los Angeles. Unlike Uber and Cruise, which both suffered PR nightmares after accidents, Waymo seems to have avoided similar pitfalls.
But there are still plenty of Waymo crashes. Two months ago, a Waymo taxi in Phoenix inexplicably drove into a pole on its way to picking up two passengers, who ordered up another Waymo, which then got stuck behind the first. The local news reported several strange Waymo incidents. In this video, a Phoenix police officer pulled over a driverless taxi after it drove into oncoming traffic. We are in interesting times.
In her Q2 2024 shareholder letter, General Motors CEO Mary Barra celebrated that Cruise, GM’s driverless car division, had restarted operations and revealed a new strategy whereby future Cruise taxis will be based on the Chevy Bolt rather than a custom-made car, which would reduce costs. The business model for these autonomous taxis remains uncertain.
Alphabet, via Waymo, has spent some 15 years and tens of billions developing the technology. Automotive News reported that a Waymo taxi costs deep into six figures as compared to the roughly $30,000 a human Uber driver pays for their car. Is there a profit in the future?
Alphabet is unique because it can afford to fund Waymo. In 2023, Alphabet cleared some $75 billion, which made it one of the most profitable companies in the world. That’s what happens when a company is allowed to operate what is basically a monopoly to index the internet. If I sound cranky here, it’s because I’ve watched Alphabet hoover up the advertising which gutted the media industry, where I work. Furthermore, businesses are now overly reliant on the black-box Google algorithm to steer consumers to their websites. Nobody but Google knows how that box works, and according to this article, the company often lies about it. The nonpartisan nonprofit foundation Open Secrets figures Alphabet spent nearly $15 billion on lobbying in 2023.
Excuse my foray into politics, but the topic is impossible to avoid because cars and transportation are so heavily regulated. In the race to develop autonomous technology, it’s hard to imagine how another company can afford to catch up to Waymo, which shows no signs of pulling back. As many have long imagined, the geographic operational areas for autonomous cars will grow over time. I used to think that by the year 2030 there will be no human drivers allowed in Manhattan. I still think that will happen but don’t think I’ll see it in my lifetime.
In the near term, we’ll see more autonomous features embedded in human-driven cars. When Ford and VW shut down Argo AI, a Ford representative told me that many of Argo’s engineers brought their knowledge to the Blue Oval. That’s one reason the Ford F-150 is available with Blue Cruise, which allows drivers to take their hands off the wheel in certain conditions. Many automakers, including GM, offer similar technology.
This past weekend, I rode in a friend’s F-150 from Michigan to Road Atlanta Raceway and back. His truck has Blue Cruise and I used it often. A camera watches the driver to make sure they are still looking at the road. The system frequently prompted me to either watch the road, put my hands on the wheel, or take over driving. The dash graphics and interface are easy to understand. At times, the system drove past a semi with mere inches between the two vehicles, which was harrowing—I kept my hands at the ready.
During a nighttime rainstorm in the mountains, Blue Cruise mostly kicked the driving back to me. Perhaps the conditions were too uncertain. During the long and monotonous stretches of Ohio plains, I was happy to let Blue Cruise take over so I could relax a bit and look around. I wondered if I’d be more rested when I arrived, but I don’t think I was. That doesn’t mean I wouldn’t gladly use the system if my own truck had it.
I’ve never been against autonomous cars. There are times I’m fine with not driving, like on I-75 in Ohio. I just want to be able to drive when I want to. My optimistic view at this mid-2024 juncture is that we’ll all be driving long into the future. If you’d like to support Hagerty’s efforts to promote the love of driving, please join the Hagerty Drivers Club.
We’ve had a busy month at Hagerty Media. Here are a few highlights to get you through the weekend:
- This 30-year-old woman is a professional Ferrari mechanic.
- Is Maserati for sale?
- Ageless John L. Stein rediscovers the freedom of exploring the woods on two wheels.
- Please buy this Corvette so I don’t have to.
- Can Hagerty’s Davin Reckow get this 1962 Dodge running?
Don’t forget to get out and drive this weekend!
Larry
P.S.: Your feedback and comments are welcome.
Please share this newsletter with your car-obsessed friends and encourage them to sign up for the free weekly email. The easy-to-complete form is here. And if you’d like to support the efforts of Hagerty Media, please consider joining the Hagerty Drivers Club.
Hi Larry:
I’ll ask the question again since I don’t think I got a response to my inquiry to last week’s newsletter.
I was quite shocked that my annual renewal last week for the Driver’s Club jumped from $45 to $70. That’s quite an increase.
Can you comment on what additional features/perks we might hope to see for the size of that increase?
Thanks.
Thank you for your question. We recently made the decision to simplify Hagerty Drivers Club by offering one option with the best coverage for classics and collectors. Hagerty will be offering better coverage for our members by offering 100 miles of roadside assistance as opposed to 20 miles which is what you previously had at your tier. The average distance a member is towed is 24 miles with overages being pricey out of pocket cost (average $7.50 – $10 a mile). We would also note that over the last year Hagerty Drivers Club has added benefits including free listings on Hagerty Classifieds, new agentless experience with our roadside in Hagerty App, the online shop finder tool, new discount partners to save you money and continued expansion of our events and experiences nationwide including the launch of HDC Days. If you have any further questions, please feel free to contact Hagerty Drivers Club directly at HagertyDriversClubTeam@hagerty.com.
I expect they will perfect this at some point in the future to where it is good enough to use. But I hope it is still a ways off.
I prefer to do my own driving and my own choice of what happens.
The weak link he is to keep people engaged as there is still failings. I want the choice of hitting a deer or going over a cliff.
I have driven the Tesla and it works but it is still not perfect. Even on my first time letting it do the driving it would not miss pot holes and road kill. Hit that sucker right under the tire.
I am working with AI at work now. I am programming it to do things for us at work but the problem is the gray areas where is no exact answer but what is the best solution of a number of solutions.
Also I fear if we give up the wheel the government will step in and tell us where we can go and when we can go. Say you get off work at 3 they may only let you travel at 4 to avoid congestion. You may want to go to the west side of town but the traffic is heavy and it will not let them travel there till later or another day.
This whole deal is sold as a utopia but there is still the human control issue and engagement. This may doom it in the long run. .
I can’t help but think “Blue Cruise” et al are like guns: Nice powerful idea, but it’s all up to the user to guide them responsibly. Invoking this technology in mid-city, dense traffic and random obstacles is just this side of stupid.
“There are times I’m fine with not driving, like on I-75 in Ohio. I just want to be able to drive when I want to. ” Sounds a bit spoiled to me. You’d be in a world of hurt if you had to drive out west where you can go hundreds of miles between stops. If you don’t want to drive, please, get off the road. Take a bus. We don’t need any more inattentive drivers that just don’t care about others on the road.
And if you are driving “within inches of a semi”, you, or the robot driving, is not in control. I’ll bet the semi driver had a few choice well-deserved words for you and your robot driver.
Well with Ford’s Blue Cruise active you have to stay more attentive than without it on. It gets mad real quick if it can’t see your eyes looking at the road. My son has a Ford so equipped and is of the “water bottle generation” well he had to change the one he uses in his truck. The one that doesn’t have a built in straw would block his eyes enough that the truck would get mad. With the bottle that has a built in straw he can take a drink and not get the truck upset.
As far as being “inches” from a semi did you consider that inches is a pretty broad term and that it could have been the semi truck driver who was hugging the line?
Thanks. Yeah, the system made sure I was paying attention. This technology is coming whether we like it or not so why not make best use of it? And yeah, the closeness to semi was tricky but we were both in our lanes so that was probably more a function of my discomfort with not being in control.
I am also saddened by the advertising drain of the internet that has killed nearly all magazines. You look at a 1990s Street Rodder mag and it was twice the thickness of most others and that was the ads –clearly a profitable venture. Street Rodder wasn’t even among the last magazines standing in that niche…
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Autonomy is a tricky thing. Not much different than companies moving production to cheaper labor markets [look at the reality of how much it would cost your local welding shop to build a 20′ sea can vs. the “one use” price you can buy one for to know that something is wrong with it all]. This is compounded by governments allowing us to live in a new-age of monopolies (seeds, meat packing, internet, etc.)
If the billions that has been spent on self-driving had been spent on public transit and other ways of reducing traffic would we already be in a better situation? I live in a snowy winter place, where it seems like this tech is centuries away from reliable use. Aggressive human drivers are going to figure out that you can bully these systems in traffic and the net result will be worse driving.
Self-checkout has led to so much shoplifting that retailers are backing off from it where I live.
Apps have taken over for many jobs –just ask your local travel agent.
Tech is supposed to make lives better for all (that’s what the 1950s appliance ads sold), not sure we are keeping sight of that chasing some of these shiny ideas. I feel the local lady that drives a gutted-interior sedan so she can pack enough packages to actually make money doing Amazon deliveries would probably agree.
Drivers Club member here and 4 classic cars insured. FYI- with all the control Google has I expect Elon Musk to start a search engine soon. Many are tired of Google deciding what our 1st amendment rights should be.
Duck Duck Go is owned by Google so so much for that.
I try not to open these articles so that Hagerty does not believe there is interest in them, especially from me. I opened this one to comments. BORING, boring, and boring.
Driverless vehicles
I appreciate you thoughts on mega companies and their deep pockets made possible due to their monopolistic business practices.
Sad for the little guy.
On the other hand, of it weren’t for the “ma bell” monopoly and deep pockets we would be a far cry from where we are today.
Another thought.
I don’t like hearing about the few mishaps of autonomous vehicles unless they are posted along side the crashes of even the smallest category of human driven vehicles.
Thank you for the article
Yeah, that’s what I’ve written before, namely that the robots are already at least as safe as humans.
My latest vehicle purchase does not even have cruise control. The car is so responsive, I need to pay attention at all times (2003 Toyota MR2 Spyder). I love every second behind the wheel. I do not want a car that drives for me. I like honing my driving skills each time I drive. It makes me a more skilled and safer driver. The vehicles that are being made today are taking responsibilities away from the driver. I fear peoples driving skills will diminish (many I have observed are quite poor already). I am not currently feeling too confident that all these auto-correct and self-driving functions are really going to make our roads safer.
I think there’s a tipping point and we are not there yet.
I’m guessing my daughter is a few years younger than you Larry, and she feels L5 autonomy won’t be achieved in her lifetime either….oh, and by the way, she also happened to work in the AV industry.
Some time ago, you mentioned evening drives on roads west of Ann Arbor. Which roads are your favorites? Never stop driving.
Take Territorial to Hankard and explore around there. Enjoy!
Simple solution. When you don’t feel like driving, don’t, and when you do, do so.
Please keep up the good work Larry. I am especially enjoying the podcast. Speaking of the podcast, when are you going to have Victoria Bruno on?
Great idea! Thank you. Not scheduled but I’ll set it up.
Man it’s almost like we’re heading for a world of driverless vehicles that operate on rails to take you to a predetermined destination and you won’t own the vehicle, but you’ll buy a pass to allow you to use the infrastructure and vehicle, and there might even be stations for those vehicles to drop you off near your final destination..
Trains…. we should’ve just built trains.
It appears Alphabet spent $15 million (not billion) on lobbying last year.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/257344/top-lobbying-spenders-in-the-us/