Horse Trading: Which Cars Do These Owners Buy Next?

Most people who own a car or truck get the newer version of whatever they’re already driving when it is time for a change. The new one is probably a bit bigger; it might be more efficient, probably safer, and has some new connectivity features with buttons (or without). Car enthusiasts are not like most people. They might get the same vehicle over and over in a different color or with different options each time. They might always get the same model year or generation, will love one design while hating the ones that came before and/or after. They also might buy much older or much newer examples than their last purchase. In short, they’re a lot less straightforward in their buying habits.

That’s not to say there aren’t discernible patterns in those habits. Using Hagerty’s insurance policy data, we can identify “gateway cars”—the ones that are an especially popular next acquisition for a particular group of owners. Among the four popular model groups shown in the graphs below, we see some with strong in-group tendencies, some with a trade-up progression, and others with a mix of both. We also see which generations are popular and which tend to be ignored.

The Ford Mustang is among our most popular models to be insured by Hagerty, and with 60-plus years of Mustangs for enthusiasts to choose from, we can see some clear ownership trends. Based on the length of the arc, we see that the 1965-66 Mustangs are the most popular examples for a Mustang owner to get next.

Primarily, those who get a 1965-66 Mustang already have one (the arrow that loops back), but there’s also strong interest from the 1967-68, 1969-70, and 1971-73 cars (the arrows from those back to the segment for the 1965-66 cars). For all Mustang generations, an owner with one example is likely to get another example from that same generation next. In some cases, starting with the 1987-93 cars, there is also a good chance they’ll get a Mustang from a newer generation.

The Chevrolet Corvette has been around even longer than the Mustang, but we see some of the same patterns here, too. C2 (1963-67) Corvette owners will most likely get another. Same for C3 Corvettes, even after splitting it into chrome bumper (1968-72) and later (1973-82) cars. C4 (1984-96) owners are most likely to get another C4, but are also more likely to skip a generation and get a C6 (2005-13) than they are a C5 (1997-2004).

C5 owners also commonly stay within that generation of Corvette, but they often trade up to a C6 as well. Conversely, C6 owners are more likely to get a C7 rather than another C6, and C7 owners are more likely to trade up to a C8 (2020-25). We see a bit of that trading up pattern with the C1 (1955-62) owners, too, as they are likely to get a C2.

Porsche 911 owners seem to be very particular about their preferred 911 generation, but they also show tendencies to trade up and buy another car from the same generation. With the latest 992-generation 911s, we see both strong interest from existing 992 and 991 (2013-19) owners trading up, along with a few 993 (1995-98) owners. Similarly, with 991-generation cars, the 997 (2005-12) owners trade up, but the 991 owners also are likely to get another”—as are a handful of 964 and 993 owners. Owners of 997s often trade within that generation, too.

Owners of 996-generation (1999-2004) cars tend to get another or trade up to a 997. However, 993 cars might be the least sticky of all the 911 generations. Owners often get one after having a Carrera 3.2 (1984-89), or SWB (1964-68), but having gotten that 993, they are more likely to go get a 991 or 992 next, rather than another 993.

Ferrari has offered a mid-engine V-8 model since the 1970s, and many of the company’s all-time best-sellers have been mid-engine V-8s. Ferrari also encourages owners to buy newer models so that these owners can then get an invite to purchase limited-production Ferrari supercars. This may explain why we see almost no trading within a generation of Ferrari V-8, but lots of trading up. The 1975-85 308 Pininfarina series of cars has some trading within, but they are more likely to get a 360 (1999-2005). Similarly, 328 (1985-89) owners are likely to skip ahead to the F355 (1994-99), as F355 owners are likely to go for a 360 or 458 (2010-16).

Owners of the 458 (despite it being the last naturally aspirated car) are likely to not look back to previous generations but go forward to a turbocharged 488 (2016-20) or F8 (2020-24). Only with the 488 and F8 is there much trading within the generation, but even 488 owners are more likely to trade up to a F8. Notably, the 348 (1989-95), 308 GT4 (1973-80) and F430 (2004-09) tend to be relatively unpopular, as the few owners of those cars tend to get something else next.

Even if you don’t own a Mustang, Corvette, 911, or V-8 Ferrari, do you tend to trade up or just trade for another?