Will the New Scout Grow Demand for the Vintage Version?

Though it has a strong cult following, the International Scout has always lived in the shadow of the Ford Bronco and Toyota Land Cruiser. Perhaps that will soon change. Volkswagen has just revived the Scout as an all-electric pickup and SUV, making use of the brand it acquired as part of its purchase of Navistar International in 2020. Setting aside the potential pitfalls of VW mining this storied American brand for its off-road pedigree, will classic International Scouts finally find themselves in the mainstream?

Though it’s unlikely that a fresh-faced Scout will displace the Ford Bronco and Toyota Land Cruiser as kings of the vintage SUV segment, it could accelerate values—especially if the retro styling pushes the right nostalgia buttons. You may recall in the 18 months following the new Bronco release, values for the original increased 45 percent. What’s more impressive is that this jump took place after values had already doubled in the five years prior.

While the new Bronco was launched with a choice between two internal-combustion powertrains, the new Scout (due in 2026) will follow in the footsteps of the new Hummer and be electric-only. Don’t assume, however, that an EV won’t help push up values for its fossil-fuel-powered predecessors. Since the Hummer EV was first announced in 2020, we’ve seen several Hummer H1 Alphas sell for over $200K—a figure none of us a few years earlier would have guessed was possible. We even added the H1 to the 2023 Hagerty Bull Market list.

Fortunes can change quickly in the classic car market, especially when a trend gains traction. Remember that until relatively recently, SUVs and trucks were overlooked in the collector space. The Toyota Land Cruiser FJ40 was the first to take off, with #2-condition (“excellent”) values hitting their peak at nearly $67K on average in 2015. At that time, first-gen Ford Broncos in similar condition were about $25K, while the original International Scout was around $16.7K. The market cooled on the FJ40 as collectors turned to the Ford Bronco, which back then looked like a steal. Values inverted in late 2018, as the Bronco became more valuable than the FJ40, and the Bronco continued to climb to its peak of $79K in Summer 2022—a 212 percent increase over the state of affairs in 2015.

However, the market for vintage SUVs is softening. Bronco values have fallen 19 percent since their peak and the Toyota FJ40 and Chevy Blazer are following suit. Meanwhile, the original 1961-71 Scout has stayed relatively flat and currently sits at $33.3k (average #2 condition value). If the market is moving on from the vintage SUV staples, could its attention be turned toward the original Scout?

Original Scout values have been steadily increasing but are still lagging behind many of its American counterparts. While values have only increased 8 percent since the EV Scout was first announced in 2022, the original Scout still remains a steal compared to the contemporary Land Cruiser, Bronco, and Blazer, and still has a lot of room to grow.

The original Scout was victim to a high rate of attrition, with the majority of the 200,000 or so produced rusting away. Restorations can be uneconomical with parts being hard to source, which leaves a limited number available for purchase on the open market. You can still find first-gen Scouts in the rust-free western states, but the 1972–80 Scout II has become the favorite. In fact, Hagerty receives more than twice as many insurance quotes for the Scout II as its predecessor. The market has spoken, as the current average #2 condition value for the Scout II is $43,170, which is 30 percent higher than the original Scout at $33,266.

The Scout II is more livable, but still rugged, so it has fared better in the classic market at large. Since the start of 2020, the average #2 condition value has increased 54 percent. While this is incredible growth for the classic car market at large, it is less impressive when narrowing your focus to the vintage SUV segment. Compared to its competitors, the Scout II's value growth lags behind all American and Japanese full-size SUVs of the era, aside from the 1973-91 Chevrolet C/K Blazer. Also, nearly all of the Scout II value growth occurred between 2020 and 2022. Since Volkswagen announced the new Scout back in 2022, Scout II values have been relatively flat, only rising 6 percent.

It bears mentioning that without younger collectors flying the flag, the Scout and Scout II would go largely unnoticed. Gen-X and millennials account for over 70 percent of insurance quotes. This, and the fact that it could be bought at a discount compared to the alternatives, was our primary reason for adding the Scout II to the 2020 Hagerty Bull Market list. Since then, in line with our predictions, average #2 values have increased 56 percent from $27,688 to $43,170. As Gen-X and millennials will presumably be the target audience for the new VW Scout EV, perhaps they will remind the rest of the classic car market that classic Scouts are an excellent alternative to more traditionally popular classic SUVs. Once that happens, we’ll see how long the discount lasts.