Muscle Car Atrophy: 5 Classics That Lost Value This Summer
If you’ve been following the market for collectibles for any length of time, it’s pretty obvious that the world isn’t what it used to be just a couple years ago. From Rolexes to the art market, and NFTs to sneakers, a distinct cooling effect has settled everything. It’s not so different in the collector car market, which has experienced its own ups and downs over the past four years. However, the classic car market is more mature than it once was, with a more solid enthusiast foundation compared to periods of previous swings.
Those of us who have been around for a while remember the biggest effect of the last memorable market swing, which impacted muscle car values more than other segments. The 2008 recession saw values of many cars wiped out in a matter of months, with a slow, years-long recovery that followed. The last upswing of 2021–22 saw muscle cars benefit again; thankfully, the most recent cooling effect has been less severe than it was in ’08, and we have observed a soft landing for values. All in all, the biggest swings in value have primarily occurred at the top end with the most exclusive muscle cars. There have been exceptions, however; market leaders such as Hemi Mopars haven’t moved much since spring. Let’s look at some of the biggest changes in the muscle car market and decipher what is going on.
1968–72 Chevrolet Chevelle SS: -6 percent
GM hit its stride in styling and performance with the redesigned A-body in 1968. More refined lines and increasing horsepower figures helped define the 1968–72 Chevelle, Olds 4-4-2, Pontiac GTO, and Buick GS as pinnacle years for GM muscle. While brand loyalties exist within the umbrella of GM fans, it is hard to deny that the Chevelle SS reigns supreme as the most recognizable. These cars looked tough and they had the muscle to back it up. Peaking in all out performance, the 1970 LS6 Chevelle, with its 454-cid big-block V-8, would lay claim to the highest advertised output—450 horsepower—a figure that would stand for decades, until the horsepower wars of the 2010s and beyond.
As is the case with most top-tier cars, the LS6-equipped Chevelles fared the best as values increased, but as the market has calmed, they have also dropped the most within the Chevelle market, at an average of six percent for coupes. The remainder of Chevelle Super Sports, however, were not untouched. A more moderate drop of around three percent occurred across most non-LS6 454 and 396 cars. This is far less meaningful than the drop of the top-tier model, but it’s an indication that more than just the big cars are stepping back. What this means for the future is that as the market continues to gradually cool, so too could Chevelle values as the we find new equilibrium.
1969–70 Ford Mustang Boss 429: -7 percent
Ford’s “Boss Nine” is perhaps the ultimate expression of the Ford Mustang as a sheer powerhouse of a pony car. As the story goes, Ford needed to homologate its semi-hemispherical-headed 429 for NASCAR competition, so the Mustang was chosen as the chassis to produce the number of 429-equipped cars to meet minimum production requirements. The problem with the 429 engine, however, was the fact that it was too large to fit in the standard car, so off it went to Kar Kraft, which already had experience shoehorning the 427 FE into the GT40 a few years before. Despite the effort needed to prep these Mustangs, Ford managed to turn out a total of 1358 of them.
Boss Nines have become quite sought after as blue-chip collector cars, making them some of the most valuable Mustangs of the era, alongside Carroll Shelby’s creations. Looking at the past few months, the Boss walked back its values by an average of seven percent. While top-tier cars rarely see their values sit stagnant, this is a noteworthy drop. Much of this has to do with poor market performance after the spring. Drops were not isolated to the Boss; other performance models of the era such as Mach 1s stepped back an average of 4 percent. It’s important to remember that these cars experinced rapid growth a couple years back, and eventually the market finds equilibrium. We’ll need to stay tuned a while longer to see just how much change is in store.
1967 Shelby GT500: -6 percent
Ford’s first update to the massively successful Mustang came in 1967, with more aggressive looks and enough room in the engine bay for the larger FE series engine. Following on the formula of taking the standard Mustang and improving it further, Shelby American seized on the opportunity to show the world what the platform could really do. Dropping in a Police Interceptor 428 and warming it over meant that at 355 horsepower, this would be the wildest Mustang to date. And, with unique styling and the GT500 nameplate, a legend was born. Adding to the already-exclusive nature of Shelby ownership, 1967 would be the last time all upgrades were done at Shelby American, making these the last truly Shelby-built Mustangs.
These GT500s are highly sought after and coveted by collectors to the point they occupy a special place in the Shelby market. While later models fared fine, neither gaining or losting value, 1967s have stumbled a bit. Losing six percent over the past quarter, this was the result of some weak prices being posted earlier in the summer. Although it is too early to call this any sort of continuing trend, these high-profile cars are certainly a leading indicator of the health of the muscle market.
1969–72 Pontiac Grand Prix: -4 percent
Technically, the Grand Prix falls in the personal luxury category, but we’re going to include it here anyway. And while the GP may have had a focus on comfort, even Pontiac in 1970 said in its marketing: “We don’t build a ‘luxury’ car. We build a performance car, then we make it luxurious.” If we peek under the sheetmetal, you’ll see that Pontiac delivered on this promise. The new G-body platform that the 1969 GP and 1970 Monte Carlo sat upon was really just an A-body–derived frame shared by the LeMans. Under the hood was a standard 350-horsepower, 400-cid engine yanked straight from the GTO. Yeah, these things could scoot.
So now that we’ve made a case for the Grand Prix as a muscle car, let’s dig into how these have done. The fact remains, unless you know what these cars really are capable of, they fly under the radar for the average muscle-car enthusiast. That said, they have gradually crept up in value over the past several years, putting up decent numbers when a great example comes to market—a pristine 400/350-equipped car could fetch more than $40,000. That said, though there are staunch enthusiasts of these cars (your author included), there aren’t enough to keep the values way up. Crucially, mainstream parts support isn’t quite there compared with the LeMans and GTO that share so many underpinnings. The result is that while the GP is down by four percent when averaged out, condition #3 (good) and #4 (fair) cars fell by 12 percent—an indication that cars needing work have become harder to sell. This is a trend we’ve seen play out across the market: Buyers want sorted cars they can use now instead of cars that need attention. The GP has just fallen victim to that sentiment more than others.
1969–70 Pontiac GTO Judge: -6 percent
Conceived to compete with Plymouth’s successful Road Runner, Pontiac introduced a flashier and hip package to the GTO for 1969 to try to claw back some market share. Named after a comedy routine from Rowan & Martin’s Laugh-In, a popular TV show at the time, “The Judge” was a lot more than just a flashy appearance package to entice the youth to plop down their hard-earned cash on a GTO. While bright colors, graphics, and spoilers were certainly attention-grabbing, Pontiac stayed true to its commitment of delivering a real performance car by making the upgraded Ram Air III 400 engine standard in the Judge, with the more potent Ram Air IV available as an option.
These are among the most sought-after Pontiacs, period. Not only did Pontiac nail the performance aspect, but GTO Judges are arguably some of the best-looking muscle cars to come out of Detroit during the era. The Judge also has the distinction of carrying some of the biggest fluctuations of the muscle car market this past quarter. Soft showings mean that 1969 Judge coupes dropped by nine percent on average, while the 1970 dropped by an average of just three percent. Before we panic, it’s important to remember that these cars experienced huge growth a little over a year ago, and these drops haven’t fully erased those gains. It is, however, an indication that this segment is searching for new footing after some big increases.
Interesting to see what’s going on with the muscle car era but I think you are right the boomers are aging out. Car shows and cruises have all but gone away in some areas and when they do have them attendance by participants and spectators is low. I even see it when I’m out driving my 70’s muscle car rarely do I get the old thumbs up and horn beeps. All that said I’m enjoying my muscle cars while I still have time.
With the exception of the Grand Prix, all of these cars were in the ‘nose bleed’ section of the American Muscle market. I’ll say what no one else has the balls to say; other than the very elite of the best models, American Muscle is declining, and will continue to do so. All you have to do is look at the top flite of the previous gen. You can now get a baby bird for decent money. Tri Fives are a bit slower to drop, but they’re going down. Instead of the GP, I would have listed Hemis. I suspect the cars with history, race cars and famous owner factor have skewed the average, but garden variety cars are out there in the 40-80k range. It’s just math. I was 16 and just getting my license in 1970, and all the big dollar cars are what we wanted. Today, I’m 70, and the days of swapping a 4 speed in my driveway are long over. I think the other thing killing prices is the relative level of performance between modern cars and classics. In objective terms, an ss396 Chevelle couldn’t take a modern Civic. The American muscle of today has left the older cars in the dust. They’re comfortable, reliable, you don’t have to recreate them, and you can finance one off the showroom floor.
Opinions on the 1970 Novas. Seem to get over powered by the same year as the Chevelles for articles etc.. Novas look good, variety of vinyl tops with paint or just complete body painted, lots of combos to have a nice looking vehicle. Room to replace any engine with a more powerful one if so desired, under the hood lots of working room. Interiors can be anything from bench seats to bucket seats. Honest opinions welcome, just to me, seem to be a sleeper vehicle waiting to happen.
Glad to hear “market leaders such as Hemi Mopars haven’t moved much since spring.” I wanted a ’70 Challenger RT at age 17 but dad said Hell No. Never lost the yen for it and got my revenge with my ’09 Challenger SRT-8. Now that Mother S has stopped making ICE Challengers, my ’09 with 29k miles looks (visually and investment-wise) and sounds (no fake rumble) better than ever. MoPar or no car!!
I’m surprised that 66 Shelby’s aren’t on the list. I watched twice as a Red 66 hammered for $137,500 plus premiums at Monterey. This was not a Hertz car either!
First time I saw it cross I came in late and thought it was a real nice clone. Second time I saw the car being previewed and the entire auction. Wow, it’s been awhile since I’ve seen a nice 66 Shelby 350 sell that low?
I remember about 6-7 years ago I saw a Red 66 Shelby Hertz with no Lemans Stripes listed by Cobra Automotive get down to $99,000 asking price before it disappeared.
Maybe the early Shelby’s are starting to fall in line with a lot of the old hot rods from 70-80’s?
Too much really nice new stuff to spend big money on an old one?
Nice to see some attention given to the Grand Prix. My second car was a 1969 Grand Prix – black on black (vinyl top) with a black interior – really loved that car as, when in the driver seat, you felt like you were in a wrap-around aircraft cockpit. Had a 400 CU with a Rochester 4-barrel carb and a unique huge/long nose, Which made it unique to drive, However the long design made the car very light in the rear, so it would spin the tires easily. It was a very fun and luxurious car to drive! Really loved cruising with it on the freeway. Had it from 74 – 84 but had to sell it when I moved across the country to my first job – as I had two other vehicles already and unfortunately it had some major rust issues at that point (due mostly to the heavy use of road salt and poor rust prevention measures back then). Looked to buy another one, but you don’t see many in great shape these days – and it certainly was hard on gas even when gas was cheap. Even so I would consider it!
I have a 1956 Ford Victoria, P code, Mandarin Orange and Colonial White. 312 v8 auto. Also a Black 1949 Mercury coupe. Flathead V8 , 3 on the tree overdrive. Both are driven whenever I feel like it. Not concerned about the market, they are fun to drive. Turn heads wherever I go and always someone says “my granddad or Dad had one ” .
I purchased my 1972 Z28 from the original owner back in 1983 for $2000.00. Worth a lot more now but not ready to sell anytime soon. Take it out for regular drives on nice days and enjoy it. That’s what makes these cars special.
Being a pre-boomer I see cars from the 70s through now as modern. My 1963 Porsche is not an exotic, I bought it in 1967 when I was looking for a simple used sport car. Plenty to choose from back then Paid $ 2,650.00 for it. No power anything, drum brakes. Roll up windows. Have to adjust the brakes and valves manually. The power pac to convert 6 volts to 12volts for the radio does have those new fangled transistors in it. I have seen reports of similar condition cars going for north of $200,000 today. Really don’t pay attention to market trends. That just brings fear and caution to the driving experience. My biggest issue is when are the kids going to take my keys away, doubt if I have the maturity yet to see that for myself and I know its coming.
Nice to see that there are a few others that like the GP’s. I special ordered a new 72 GP SJ. It had a 455 with automatic and would chirp the tires on the up shift. It was pewter with a pewter vinyl top and a gray vinyl interior. Traded it for a new 77 T-Bird. I wish I still had the GP.
2019 the convergence of Gen 1 Camaros were almost even , I was paying 15 to 20 for a decent rust free 67-68 a 69 was 25 to 30 As a specialty dealer I buy a lot of cars. In 2019 I bought a rust free 69 with great paint for 15 k needed brake work with a hot 327. Same year I purchase a 68 SS convert for 16k with a crate motor again nice paint no rust new top in the trunk. by the end of 2020 a rust bucket no floor pan 67 123 (six) car was 20k , a year later it was 30k & needed everything . These price build up with SBA pandemic money & work from home lifted all tides . I started selling 80 G bodys by the dozens . Why ? because the average Joe could afford a 7 to 15 grand car . Like real estate speculation what goes up eventually comes down. But take a look at auction prices & they are crazy for total pieces of junk. Car I would never retail I sell to other dealers who shaft their customers at all the big auctions. Am I stupid? maybe, but my rep is worth more than money. To ignore the pandemic’s effect on values is the same as igoning the crash in values of the great recession in 2008 .
Covid, inflation, interest rates. Etc all had an effect on the collector car market. Pre Covid when the stock market was booming and interest rates were low, people were paying top prices. They will again when the time is right. I know many twenty and thirty somethings who want classic muscle but need to lock down a house and kids first. It’s cyclical and supply and demand still apply. Who wants a Demon 170 when parts are not available and no one is reproducing them, and they were not designed for driveway repair. Prices will be up and down like a new brides pajamas but will always rise in the long run.
Respect to electric vehicles and super cars and dime a dozen hellcats but pre 71 muscle cars have an allure that’s undeniable
Pat McN – I’ve never understood why the GT- 350 H cars started commanding a higher price than a dealer GT- 350. They are more likely to be equipped with an automatic because Shelby and Hertz got tired of constantly replacing clutches on these ‘ rent -a -racers ‘. A practical decision not a performance upgrade. Other than that, the at first gold on black then later gold stripes on other, there is no advantage to owning an ‘H’. Other than , perhaps, the one driven by Gardner in ‘Gran Prix’ ( which is a four speed ) why would you pay more? In a 66 I’d try holding out for one with the optional factory Shelby Paxton supercharger cars if the price on those decreases correspondingly.
All my muscle cars I drive and enjoy you can’t put a price on that and everybody loves to see them and wishes that it was theirs
Some of the reasons why these cars are so costly now is that 1. Our money is not worth as much because of inflation and 2. If you restore these cars, a good restro shop will cost you just north of 100K and a concouse restoration upwards of 200K.