Monterey’s Ups and Downs Point to a Nuanced Market
When it comes to collector car values, Monterey is not the market and the market is not Monterey. It’s just one event, of many. It serves a limited subset of a huge hobby. It’s a handful of live sales in a world of digital platforms and private transactions. Yet we pay a lot of attention to this series of auctions (five this year) because: (1) It’s the biggest and most visible barometer for the top of the market we get all year, and (2) It’s one of the largest in-person gatherings of buyers, sellers, and industry pros anywhere in the world.
The 2024 Monterey auctions have just wrapped up and the results are, well, let’s just say we heard the word “disappointing” quite a bit over the past five days. The numbers, from overall sales totals to sell-through rates on top-tier cars and prices matched against Hagerty Price Guide values all show a drop from the COVID-era highs of the past few Montereys. Auctioneers had to work harder to sell cars, reserves and low estimates proved hard to meet, and even some of the week’s star cars had a shrug-worthy trip across the block.
But there were conspicuous bright spots punctuating the disappointments. Over a dozen cars achieved record prices, and 89 of them sold for above their condition #1 (concours, or best-in-the-world) value in the Hagerty Price Guide. While nearly a third of vehicles sold below their condition-appropriate price guide values, half of them sold for above their price guide values. Even within segments like modern exotics, big results immediately followed ho-hum ones. Last month, we characterized the market with one word: picky. Given Monterey’s mixed results, it’s a word that still very much applies.
![Broad Arrow Motorlux 2024](https://hagerty-media-prod.imgix.net/2024/08/Broad-Arrow-2024-Motorlux-Wednesday-Kayden-at-smokymediaa.jpg?auto=format%2Ccompress&fit=crop&h=427&ixlib=php-3.3.0&w=640)
Leading up to Car Week, shakiness in the stock market made headlines, while in the fashion world brand powerhouses like LVMH, Hugo Boss, and Burberry published profit warnings and saw their shares tumble. The S&P 500 and luxury apparel prices don’t have a direct effect on the car market, though, and Hagerty’s official forecast for Monterey ’24 ranged from a post-pandemic average of $430M in total sales all the way up to a record $488M.
In the end, though, cumulative sales through Saturday totaled $391.6M (down 2.9 percent from 2023) and the average sale price came to $477K (slightly down from $477.9K in ’23). Cars worth $1M or more, which are Monterey’s bread and butter, saw a 52% sell-through rate (down from 63% in 2023). Enzo-era Ferraris, another Monterey hallmark, also clearly struggled, with only about a third of the ones worth $1M+ meeting reserve (in four of the last 10 years, that number exceeded 80%). Zooming in, though, we saw plenty of monster prices, bidding wars, and quite a few contradictions.
![1960-Ferrari-250-GT-SWB-California-Spider-by-Scaglietti_1231814](https://hagerty-media-prod.imgix.net/2024/08/1960-Ferrari-250-GT-SWB-California-Spider-by-Scaglietti_1231814.jpg?auto=format%2Ccompress&fit=crop&h=426&ixlib=php-3.3.0&w=640)
Sticking with Ferraris, even as the older cars struggled, the marque notched six of the top 10 sales this year. A replacement-motor Enzo sold for its #4 value ($2.86M). An F50 brought a record price ($5.505M). A stick shift 456 sold for 20% below its price guide value ($95,200). A stick shift 2007 599 GTB sold for double its price guide value ($786,000).
![](https://media.hagerty.com/media/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/1989-mercedes-benz-560-sl-1024x576.webp)
![](https://media.hagerty.com/media/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/1989-porsche-911-turbo-slantnose-targa-1024x576.webp)
RADwood era (1980-99) and newer exotics saw some of the biggest gains of the pandemic era and many continued to do well in Monterey, but even in this segment there are some contradictions. Of the four Vectors on offer, all fell short of their presale estimates and only one sold. Porsche Carrera GTs and Mercedes-Benz McLaren SLRs were also visibly down from their COVID peaks. But Lamborghini Countaches brought strong numbers for the most part, and price records broke for both Murcielago ($1.352M) and LM002 ($703,500). RUF ($2.095M), Porsche 930 Slantnose ($555,000), and Mercedes-Benz 560SL ($260,000) also saw records tumble.
![](https://hagerty-media-prod.imgix.net/2024/08/MecumDaytona-1.jpg?auto=format%2Ccompress&fit=crop&h=378&ixlib=php-3.3.0&w=640)
![](https://hagerty-media-prod.imgix.net/2024/08/TomPettyMustang.jpg?auto=format%2Ccompress&fit=crop&h=427&ixlib=php-3.3.0&w=640)
Things were mixed in the muscle car world as well. Mecum’s 1970 Hemi Cuda Convertible ($2.576M) fell short and stayed unsold at a $2M high bid, but their Hemi Daytona smashed the record price at $3.3M, over twice what the same car sold for two years ago. And while an estate collection of muscle cars at Bonhams’ sale saw mostly mediocre numbers, the same auction saw some of the most exciting auction action all week when two bidders just wouldn’t back down for an ex-Tom Petty Mustang and settled at a $224K final price. The car itself, a 1965 D-Code convertible, was unremarkable in both condition and options, and Bonhams estimated they’d only get $25K-$35K for it.
In classic British cars, too, there were surprises. Generally this segment is soft and Jaguar E-Types in particular have seen a big dropoff since late 2022, yet there were multiple strong sales for these ’60s Jags in Monterey, as well a couple of MGA Twin Cams. Broad Arrow’s 2010 Morgan sold for a record price, too ($263,200).
In short, totals were down and the road was rougher, but there were some bright spots in some areas and arguably some buying opportunities in others. The market is a mix of caution and exuberance, with shifting tastes and resetting expectations after multiple historically strong years. In other words, it’s picky.
![](https://media.hagerty.com/media/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/1997-porsche-911-gt1-rennversion-1-1024x576.webp)
This article would have been a lot more interesting if you included the sale prices instead of a list of hyperlinks.
Agreed. Some cars don’t even get the hyperlinks to get you a price.
In the world of greed, it’s not surprising to have the auction companies blurt out “disappointing”. If RECORD sales numbers are not achieved year after year we will always hear the cries of the truly desperate. The $5 million or the $100 million cars will always be where they are but it’s the “mass” produced sports cars out there that are getting ridiculous money over the last 4 years and primarily because COVID created a shortage in all car manufacturing.
I follow Porsche and what IS happening are “dealers” are scooping up air-cooled cars that 10 years ago were $20,000 to $30,000 for well over $100,000 to $200,000 now. Sitting on them with the hopes that the hype of so-called rarity will continue and they can sell to another “dealer” with the same lines of thinking. I have seen many “new to Porsche” buyers of these 964/993 911’s get caught up in this hype and realized not long after………”why did I buy this?”. I have followed a few “BaT” sellers for years now and it’s amazing how many 911’s have been bought back by them from 1st time Porsche buyers a year or so later.
I love the air-cooled 911 and have since 1977 but in todays world, the old 911 can be disappointing in so many ways and especially for those who have never had one suckered in by auction hype. I am willing to bet there will be a correction in the used Porsche market sooner than you think. As much as I love the air-cooled 911’s I have had, I can be quite happy with the great memories of those than watching a correction that could easily take 50% off my over-paid dream car…………….and would still be over priced!
Now maybe some expert in the field can come on here and “correct me” and tell me the prices “will only go up”…………..again, the cry of the truly desperate.
Right on! I can’t believe the prices that air-cooled, and even newer water cooled, 911s have been bringing for several years now. Yes they are nice cars, but lots and lots of them were built, and I have a hard time seeing real value at the current price levels. The ongoing 911 bull market could be the biggest balloon in the collector car market today. God help collectors if it pops.
A “balloon” market is exactly what is happening with Porsche currently. I spoke to a “used” Porsche sales “expert” a couple of days ago and he was that exact mindset……..”they’ll only keep going up” ……..😂😂😂.
I’ll bide my time………would put money on it that 2026 will be the correction.
I too loved the air-cooled engine, but back in the but I couldn’t afford a Porsche, however, I did buy a 1966 Baja Bug with fiberglass fenders, trunk lid and engine cage back in 1986 and than picked up a 1600cc flat four out of a rolled Volkswagen Super Beetle for it. I can’t remember when I’ve had that much fun with a car, and I can still remember the sound of that air-cooled engine. But neither the Bug, nor I would have been welcomed at Monterey.
Whoever wrote this, should apply to be the best White House Press Secretary. Just say the market is finally correcting, no need to dance around it.
I didn’t see any 1967 stingray Corvette up there with the 427 engine or any1985 Jaguars
I never understood air-cooled mania – which reminds me of tulip mania btw – and while it’s a free economy (for the most part), it’s sad when speculators drive enthusiasts from the market’s “Segment du Jour”.
To say it’s a “nuanced” market may be the understatement of the year. I saw a relatively rare and desirable (and affordable) Enzo-era Ferrari miss reserve on BAT earlier this year, then get an even LOWER high bid at Mecum’s Monterey sale. If we’re going with “nuanced”, that must be code for “nobody can predict what any segment of this market is doing at the moment”. 😂
Could I tell you about the air-cooled Deutz diesel that I have in my Gleaner R-52 combine… There is a cult following for those things.