Another Motionless Month in the Collector Car Market
The Hagerty Market Rating measures the current status of the collector car market in terms of activity or “heat,” directional momentum, and the underlying strength of the market. It is expressed as a closed 0-100 number with a corresponding open-ended index (like the DJIA or NASDAQ Composite). To learn more about how we calculate the Hagerty Market Rating, read here.
This month, the Hagerty Market Rating backed off its downward spiral, holding steady at 61.47. This motionless month marks only the second time in the last 19 months that the Market Rating hasn’t decreased. Our earlier prediction of the Market Rating moving into the “flat market” (a score in the 50s) by the end of the year may have been foiled by this month’s lack of movement. However, a 1.5-point drop is not uncommon and we will wait until next month to see if the Market Rating has met our prediction.
The Hagerty Market Index, an open-ended stock-market-style version of the Market Rating, barely moved with a drop of only -0.03 points this month. This is one of the smallest drops the index has seen in recent years, coming only a month after the largest single-month drop since early 2023.
The usual metrics continued to fall this month. Average and Median Values in the Hagerty Price Guide continued their downward trend. The ratio of insured value increases to decreases has now dropped three consecutive months for vehicles valued under $250,000. For more expensive vehicles, this ratio hasn't seen an increase in over a year.
With its first increase in a year and a half, the Overall Auction Activity metric moved up 0.7 points. However, its two component metrics diverged. While the Number of Cars Sold moved up 1.75 points to its highest value since the summer, the Median Sale Price dropped another 0.35 points to 26.29, which is its lowest value (adjusted for inflation) in the 18-year history of the Market Rating. While the Median Price at Auction metric has dropped 19 months in a row, Private Sales Activity has remained relatively flat in that time ,hovering around the high-60s and low-70s.
Our macro economic indicators have dropped four months in a row to their lowest point in 18 months, but they remain relatively healthy with a combined score of 96.48. Our industry experts cite a continued strong economy as one of the reasons they are feeling more optimistic about the classic car market. While opinion among our industry experts remains below 50, it did move up one point this month to it's highest value in three months. They note that truly special cars, like the $9.355M sale for a "junkyard" quality 1956 Mercedes 300SL Alloy Gullwing, still command a premium.
As the year ends and we head into the classic car market's traditionally quieter months, the Market Rating will likely continue to fall as the velocity of transactions slows. Come January, the temperature will change when thousands of vehicles cross the block at Barrett-Jackson Scottsdale and Mecum Kissimmee.
