3 Up, 3 Down: Do These Muscle Cars Point to an Emerging Trend?

Among the many segments in the collector car hobby, muscle cars are one of the most solidly established. Their market is more mature than the emerging collector SUV and Japanese segments, and demand remains broad and deep, in contrast to the more limited audience for cars from the ’50s and earlier. Lately, however, the trend for these cars as a group is also one of the hardest to pin down.

The Hagerty Muscle Car Index, a stock-market-style grouping of cars that represent a broad spectrum of the segment, is down 5 percent in the last quarter, and 8 percent over the last year. That said, 2024 has still featured standout muscle car sales, like this ’70 Plymouth Hemi ‘Cuda and this ’70 Oldsmobile 4-4-2 W30. As a result of these somewhat mixed messages, Hagerty Price Guide editor Greg Ingold has characterized the muscle market as “softening but nuanced.”

One theme we are seeing lately is top-line cars—like the Plymouth Superbird we highlighted in a recent Price Guide update—slipping while some less powerful, less ostentatious, or less mainstream models are seeing a slight uptick. To wit, here are a few examples of muscle car values that show some bright spots in the middle of the muscle car market as well as some of the recent weaknesses at the pointy end.

1968-69 Mercury Cyclone: +15 percent

Starting out in 1964 as a trim level on Mercury’s Comet, the Cyclone became its own, more luxurious take on the muscle car in 1968. The model offered a range of solid-performing engines and handsome, sporty looks, but never took off in an era where wild exterior visuals were beginning to match the increasing power under Detroit’s hoods. While not as rare as some of the other cars on this list, the entire run of ’68-69 Cyclones didn’t cross 23,000 units, so if you’ve got one or are thinking about picking up this upscale muscle alternative, it’s a near lock that you’ll be the only Cyclone at the next local car show.

The Cyclone and its close relative, the Ford Fairlane (below), are the two on this list with the broadest spread of options and drivetrains, so there’s a fair amount of variance in terms of value and percentage of increase within each of these two models (the percentage increase in the heading is for the model overall). For instance, a #2 (“excellent”) condition ’69 Cyclone Spoiler II with its burly 428 Cobra Jet is up 26 percent to $89K, while a ’69 Cyclone GT with a 302-cubic inch V-8 in the same condition is up a still-significant 16 percent to $28,500. Our valuation team does not always note increases across the board within a specific model—sometimes in a slow market, a top configuration will move while lesser versions hold steady—so this market behavior bodes well for the Cyclone.

1971-74 AMC Javelin AMX: +10 percent

Though the AMX started life as a two-seater, AMC pivoted for 1971 and made AMX the top trim level at in the Javelin lineup. A spruced-up interior, revised fiberglass hood, and spoilers front and rear visually distinguished the AMX from the rest of the Javelin trims, while between the fenders sat a 285-horse 360-cubic inch V-8 or a 330-hp 401-cubic inch V-8. Even if it wasn’t the most powerful car out there, the Javelin/AMX was stylish if slightly offbeat competition for the Big Three’s pony cars, and it proved to have a healthy following.

We picked the original ’68-70 AMX for our 2023 Bull Market List, and since then values of that generation are up just shy of 5 percent. The AMX-trim Javelins of ’71-74, however, are up a more impressive 10 percent. The good news is that even #2 (“excellent”) condition 360-powered cars come in at $36,600, and driver-quality cars can be had for about $20K. Budget a few grand more for the larger engine.

1966-67 Ford Fairlane: +8 percent

As with most mid-sized cars of the era, you could get your fifth-generation Ford Fairlane in decidedly non-muscular station wagon and sedan form (though you could get some powerful engines in those body styles). For the purposes of this exercise, though, we’re only considering the two-door models. Still, there was plenty of variety in both trim and engine—from mild 289 V-8 to the much wilder (and rarer) dual-quad-equipped 427. What’s more, in contrast to the Mercury Cyclone, Fairlanes were produced in healthy numbers.

Values for the more muscle-oriented Fairlanes are up 8 percent overall in the latest edition of the Hagerty Price Guide. A 320-horse 390-cubic inch ’67 Fairlane 500 convertible tips the scales at $30,900 in #2 (“excellent”) condition, a 10.4 percent increase. Up 16 percent (to $35K) is the ’66 Fairlane 500XL coupe with the 265-horse 390. Meanwhile, the crown jewel of the model, the 427-powered ’66 Fairlane 500, is up 16.4 percent in the same condition, and is valued at $255K. Prior to this past quarter’s strong performance, Fairlanes were increasing slightly through 2023’s slowing market. If there’s a poster child for a solid ’60s muscle cruiser that’s not flashy but gets the job done, the Fairlane might be it—and it seems the market’s taken notice.

1969 Chevrolet Chevelle COPO: -13 percent

In 1969, GM’s corporate edict keeping engines larger than 400 cubic inches out of any car that wasn’t either full-sized or named Corvette was still very much in effect. Creative minds find solutions, however, and the Central Office Production Order (COPO)—a program designed to enable the special order of specific option combinations for police, municipal, and other fleet use—got leveraged to bring big power to a few savvy people. That year, 323 Chevelles were ordered with the 425-horse L72 427-cubic inch engine through COPO. Don Yenko’s S/C conversions were the most famous Chevelles to go through this process—99 were made—though Berger Chevrolet in Michigan also utilized the COPO side door. The remainder trickled out to other dealers across the U.S. and Canada.

Despite the fact that these Chevelles are among the most rare and sought-after Chevy muscle cars, our valuation team has observed a downward trend in prices. Across all conditions, non-Yenko COPO Chevelle values are down 13 percent. Yenko S/C Chevelles have performed a little better, losing 10 percent over the last quarter. That doesn’t mean any are cheap, however. A #2 (“excellent”) condition COPO Chevelle is still valued at $156K (a Yenko in the same condition will garner $165K), and either car in #4 (Fair) condition will still command six figures.

1967-69 Camaro SS: -8 percent

From the factory, a set of SS badges on a first-gen Camaro meant at least a 350-cubic inch V-8 under the hood. Buyers who wanted more grunt could option a big-block 396 with up to 375 horses. If you pulled up to a stoplight next to a Camaro SS, it helped to scope out the front fender to see what flavor V-8 you were up against. That said, plenty of savvy owners subbed out the chrome “396” for a more modest 350 badge to fool would-be opponents.

Today, regardless of the horsepower count, first-generation Camaro Super Sports of all stripes are down a significant eight percent as a whole. Of course, this translates to different values across the spectrum—For instance, a 300-horse ’69 L48 350-powered Camaro SS in #2 (“excellent”) condition is now valued at a little more than 61 grand, and $127,000 will fetch a ’68 SS convertible with the 375-hp 396 in the same condition. While these Camaros aren’t top-dog Chevys like the COPO Chevelles, they are coveted A-list cars from the muscle era, and our valuation team takes notice when their values move.

1968 Shelby GT500 KR: -4 percent

It’s not the most pricey Shelby Mustang (that honor goes to the ’65 GT350R) and it isn’t set up to be as nimble as other Shelby creations, but the ’68 Shelby GT500 KR has a lot going for it. 428 Cobra Jet Power, the Shelby name, and some seriously good looks have put the GT500 KR at the top of the list for many a Mustang fan. After a stable 2023, prices are down 4 percent for convertibles (to $204K for a #2 example) and 3.7 percent (to $155K) for fastbacks in the first quarter of 2024. Though Ford muscle has generally trended positive over this period, this particular Blue Oval tracks the broader segment’s recent cooling.

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